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Just messing around, getting triple doubles
2016 Dancing with Noah Draft Preview – Part I
June 22, 2016Posted by on
Jonathan Givony from Draft Express was a guest on Adrian Wojnarowski’s The Vertical podcast earlier this week and he kicked off by saying that in the 13 years he’s been covering the draft, every year he knows less. The 2016 All-Star game featured players drafted 15th (Kawhi Leonard), 35th (Draymond Green), 24th (Kyle Lowry), 47th (Paul Millsap), and 60th (Isaiah Thomas) – so by some measure, five of the top-24 players in the league (nearly 21%) were drafted 15th or later. The draft is often referred to as an inexact science, but given the above information and the fact that we’ve seen Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, and Andrea Bargnani picked number-one overall in the previous 10 drafts, one wouldn’t be considered a mad man to call the yearly process a shot in the dark (but who’s to blame for Bennett?). Even draft gurus like DX’s Mike Schmitz copped to being sky high on Suns big man Alex Len during the 2013 draft cycle. The science and analysis can be spot on while the results can be the slippery banana peel of your favorite mock draft.
With all that in mind, my compadres and I are drifting away from the impossible-to-predict mock draft (I believe we accurately guessed two out of 30 first round picks in 2015 which is a rate so poor even Harrison Barnes can gloat), and focusing on a player-centric analysis that explores 36 players, their skills, and potential fits based on projected pick ranges. We’ve written far too many words and don’t agree on everything, but once upon a time someone deemed Michael Olowakandi the top choice in an NBA draft that featured multiple Hall of Famers so maybe consensus is overrated. This is part one of three, so settle in with your favorite beverage and a bag of chips; the future is waiting:
Ben Simmons – 6’10”, 239lbs, 20-years-old (on July 20th), Maahs
Sixers Outlook: After a freshman season filled with inconsistent shooting, character concerns and a lack of winning, Simmons has gone from presumably to possibly being the #1 pick. It’s hard to see how any of these questions will be immediately answered after being selected by the Sixers. Projecting as a point-forward, it will be a challenge for Brett Brown to maximize Simmons’ skill set with Sam Hinkie’s “process” filled roster. While the log jam of big men is not ideal, Brown could possibly divide the Embiid/Okafor/Noel trio among the first and second unit. And should Dario Saric (a Toni Kukoc-type player) come over, the Sixers could create some offensive continuity with both units being run through the point forward position. If the Sixers don’t trade any of their centers, they’ll still have approximately $65 million in 2016-17 cap space to surround Simmons with the necessary backcourt shooting. Brett Brown has known Simmons since he was born and coached his dad in Australia. If anyone can establish a rapport with the young Australian born player, Brett Brown is the guy.
Brandon Ingram – 6’9”, 196lbs, 18-years-old, Bug
Lakers Outlook: With the 2016 NBA Draft widely considered a “two-man draft,” the Lakers have the luxury here of not being able to mess up this pick. Now that the Black Mamba has slithered off into the sunset, the Lakers can truly start the rebuilding process that Kobe had tried unsuccessfully to fight. The young nucleus of Russell, Clarkson, Randle and Nance Jr. is lacking a small forward, so Ingram slots in as a perfect fit in the starting lineup. Standing at 6’9” with a freakishly long 7’3” wingspan, he’s often compared to the slight-framed Kevin Durant and that length will provide new coach Luke Walton with plenty of options to exploit mismatches on smaller defenders, while his outside shooting will give the Lakers some much needed floor spacing. The addition of Ingram will firmly put the “Farewell Tour” in the rearview, and help usher in the new era of Lakers basketball.
Jamal Murray – 6’5”, 201lbs, 19-years-old, Maahs
After a workout with Boston, in which Murray made 79 out of 100 three-point attempts, Murray was quoted saying, “I believe I’m the best player in the draft, but every team needs what they need.” While he may not be the best player in the draft, every team needs shooting. No team in the top half of the lottery has a more desperate shooting need than the Minnesota Timberwolves. Ranking 31st in 3PT made last season, Murray could provide instant help in that area while playing both guard positions. Seen as an average athlete and a weak defender, a couple of years under Thibs would be valuable for Murray’s development on the defensive end. The ability to play both guard positions, along with his age, has placed Murray ahead of Buddy Hield in the eyes of some scouts. With Eric Gordon hitting free agency and Jrue Holiday inevitability injured for a good chunk of the 2016-17 season, New Orleans has an immediate need for a guard capable of playing both positions. Playing alongside a rim-protector in Anthony Davis would help hide some of Murray’s defensive deficiencies while he adjusts to the NBA game. His hot shooting Boston workout could entice Danny Ainge to take Murray with the #3 pick. Brad Stevens’ position-less style of play would fit perfectly with Murray’s game and he could easily be paired up with a defensive minded guard (Bradley/Smart) while on the floor.
Floor: OJ Mayo
Kris Dunn – 6’4”, 205lbs, 22-years-old, Bug
After the top two guys come off the board, the next handful of picks is where things will get interesting. Kris Dunn is the unquestioned number one point guard, and possibly the best two-way player in this year’s draft. Dunn has great size for a PG at 6’4” and the elite athleticism to be an absolute menace on the defensive end. That same size also allows him to be able to guard some 2-guards as well. He is a nightmare to handle in transition offensively, and has developed a dependable jump shot that should only get better as his game matures. Because of his two-way ability, Dunn has a high floor and is probably one of the safest picks in this year’s draft. With the NBA transitioning to a perimeter-oriented league, point guard is a premium position in today’s game. The only problem for Dunn is that the teams drafting in the 3-7 range are pretty much set at the position. This has led to wide speculation that a trade will probably go down to acquire the Providence product. Recent buzz has the Sixers trying to work out a deal with the Celtics to acquire Dunn at #3. The Bulls have also been rumored to be very high on him, but moving up from #14 seems highly unlikely (Ed’s note: Derrick Rose was traded just after this was written). If there’s no trade action, the best fit in terms of need for Kris would be in New Orleans. Jrue Holiday has been a disaster with the Pels (mostly because of constant injuries), and Alvin Gentry’s team needs a young perimeter building block to pair with Anthony Davis.
Floor: Devin Harris
Ceiling: John Wall hybrid
Buddy Hield – 6’4”, 214lbs, 22-years-old, Hamilton
The most explosive scorer/shooter in the draft, Buddy lights teams up. It only takes a quick half step to get into his shooting rhythm from deep. A hesitation (modeled after Kyrie) would make him even more lethal on the attack. Skilled and strong enough to contribute right away, a team with playoff aspirations won’t have to wait for contribution from the 22-year-old. Scouts have been killing his defense and it needs to get better. But the foundation is there: decent size at SG, hard worker, smart player, raises his game when it matters. There’s no good reason to think he won’t become an acceptable NBA defender. The best fit in this range is New Orleans. Eric Gordon has one more year on his deal, and can’t reasonably be brought back. Physically and mentally mature, Buddy will be ready for big minutes when the Hobbit goes down and ultimately leaves New Orleans. With another high character young guy in Anthony Davis it’s an ideal situation both ways. (Now bring Monty back!) Outside shooting and spacing are so integral to today’s NBA one might expect Buddy to go on the higher side of 4-8, but as we get closer to the draft he’s trending the other way. Feels like a lot of teams might regret passing on him.
Floor: JJ Redick
Hottest Take: a top-seven all-time SG.
Henry Ellenson – 6’10”, 231lbs, 19-years-old, Bug
It doesn’t take long after turning on the Henry Ellenson tape to realize that this is a highly skilled big man with a lot of offensive tools in his toolbox. The thing that pops the most is the fluid ball handling for a player of his size. Ellenson goes 6’10”, 240, but he has no problem grabbing a defensive rebound and taking the ball coast-to-coast through traffic and finishing with either hand. His post-game is solid, highlighted by a soft touch and ability to score over either shoulder. The former Marquette star is also one of the draft’s best rebounders to bolster his offensive skill. The biggest knock on Ellenson is his lack of explosiveness. This could cause some problems for him defensively, but his overall talent will make the defensive liability more tolerable. Ellenson is projected to go somewhere between 9-15 in the draft, but based on recent workout reports of him shooting the ball well for Milwaukee, it is becoming more apparent that he could be a top-10 pick with the Bucks. Milwaukee is actively trying to move Greg Monroe, and Ellenson could come in and provide them a much needed boost shooting and scoring.
Floor: Josh McRoberts
Ceiling: Ryan Anderson with handles
Furkan Korkmaz – 6’7”, 185lbs, 19-years-old (on July 24th), Bug
This Turkish import has a nice offensive skillset with a deadly outside jumper and better than average athleticism. Korkmaz has an impressive highlight reel with a good mix of outside jumpers, drives to the hoop, and has the ability to finish above the rim. Still only 18-years-old, Korkmaz is a big unknown against top level competition after spending much of his time this past season riding the pine in the Euroleague (11.5 mpg). He flashed enough in the FIBA Europe junior league to have NBA scouts intrigued with his upside. Due to him probably being 1-2 years away from contributing, his ideal fit would be a team that has multiple first round picks and can bring him along slowly. Denver, Phoenix and Boston all have multiple picks in the first round that could see him go anywhere from the 13-23 range. Denver stands out as a particularly good fit out of those three teams. They have a strong international presence on the team and his outside shooting touch would be a good compliment in a backcourt rotation with Mudiay.
NBA Comparison: Nick Young
Denzel Valentine – 6’6”, 223lbs, 22-years-old, Hamilton
The word on Denzel Valentine is a significant right knee issue has his draft stock slipping out of the lottery and into the low 20s. One team went as far as comparing it to Danny Granger’s situation. Having one’s knee compared to Granger’s is almost as bad as it gets for a draftee. If only Portland were picking here, it’d be a no-brainer for them. Most noteworthy of the myriad skills he possesses, is his passing ability. Taking it a step further, his passing ability on the move – both in transition and in pick and roll situations – is NBA level stuff. He makes the right decisions and delivers the ball with precision to cutters, open shooters and alley-oop dunkers. He rebounded well at MSU but that will be tough to replicate in at this level. Boston, Denver and Detroit all pick in this range and all employ good quality NBA head coaches. To borrow a line from Omar Little “Even if I miss I can’t miss.” Though true, it’s the Pistons at #18 where Valentine makes the most sense. He shoots it well enough to space the floor for Andre Drummond and has the passing skills to get him the ball at the rim. Despite being a local guy, the pressure wouldn’t be too much here because he’d start out behind KCP, Stanley Johnson, Morris Twin and Tobias Harris. A chance to further develop his basketball brain under Stan Van Gundy would be a positive way to start a career. As several former SVG players have remarked SVG demands a lot from his players, and they get better and better under his watch.
Floor: Out the league in 4 yrs with a bum knee
Ceiling: an SG/SF Draymond Green
Bold Prediction: Makes at least 2 All-Star teams
Timothe Luwawu – 6’7”, 205lbs, 21-years-old, Hamilton
The young Frenchman has solid NBA size and a skillset ideal as a rotation player in today’s NBA. His increased 3-point shooting (36% on 5.3 attempts per) from 14-15 to 15-16 is definitely worth noting. He gets good elevation on his 3-point-shot and isn’t shy about letting it fly from deep. With a lot of bounce on the drive and good length he passes the eye test as well. Effort on the defensive end needs to be better but that’s a common critique of young wing players. Hoopshype says Luwawu “is probably more dependent on landing on the right situation …” That’s part of what we’re looking for in this draft and for Luwawu that team is Charlotte picking at #22. Luwawu could do worse than joining a strong competitive leader in Kemba Walker and the chance to play behind his fellow countryman Nicolas Batum (assuming the Hornets re-sign him). Batum’s been around the block a few times and should help Luwawu adjust to life in the NBA and life in these United States. Charlotte can always use affordable NBA potential and Luwawu possesses it although he won’t be ready to play right away. While the Hornets aren’t the most stable environment in the league, it’s far from dysfunctional any longer and most of a competitive nucleus remains under contract for 16-17.
Reasonable comparison: Danny Green
More likely? Back to Europe Rudy Fernandez style.
Malachi Richardson – 6’6”, 200lbs, 20-years-old, Maahs
Those playing the draft night drinking game should get a full beer ready when Malachi’s name is called. Wingspan. Wingspan. Wingspan. At 6’6” with a 7-foot wingspan and a 38-inch vertical, Richardson has the size and length that makes NBA front offices salivate. These measurables combined with a smooth shooting stroke and a quick release, makes it’s easy to see why the 20-year old wing prospect has risen on many draft boards and is one of the 19 green room invitees on draft night. Like many young players, Richardson likes to hold the ball and square up his defender prior to make his first move. He has a nice bounce with the ball is in his hands and is capable of shooting off the dribble at any point during his initial move towards the rim. Consistent shooting was an issue during his freshman season at Syracuse — shooting 35% from 3PT and an abysmal 24% on two-point jumpers. Despite these shooting inconsistencies, Richardson is capable scorer and can rack up points in bunches as was evident during the Elite Eight win against Virginia — scoring 21 points in the second half with many of those coming against Malcolm Brogdon, the ACC’s defensive player of the Year. Playing only zone in college, it’s challenging for GM’s to get a true read on Richardson’s defensive capabilities. Like most rookies, there would be a defensive learning curve but his could be a little steeper. But with his length and a concentration on improved shot consistency it’s reasonable to think Richardson could easily be a 3-D guy at the next level. Once considered a late first/early second round pick, Richardson could be picked anywhere from 9-20 in the draft. Landing on a team like the Pacers with a primary playmaker (Paul George) could help his development — allowing him to focus on 3-D skills before taking on more offensive responsibilities.
Floor: Terrence Ross
Wade Baldwin – 6’3”, 195lbs, 20-years-old, Hamilton
Wade Baldwin boasts good size for a PG at 6’4 and nearly 200 pounds. He has broad shoulders and likes to play to contact. He uses those physical tools along with a 6’11” wingspan to be an effective defender. His 38” vertical is yet another impressive metric. Unfortunately, his limitations are equally significant. He lacks much ability to attack small gaps to get into the paint in half court situations – all his highlights on the dribble are transition plays. His jump shot is from out in front of his face and appears to have a low release point. He makes it at a good clip (40% on 199 3s attempted in 2 years), but it looks easier to contest than that of other big guards. With a loose handle, it’s kind of difficult to see Baldwin ever being really good in pick and roll situations. Mocks show the Bulls like Baldwin at 14 and on some levels this pick makes sense. They may believe Baldwin is their post-Rose PG. They have no other PGs under contract for 16-17. Yet, given the totality of Baldwin’s strengths and weaknesses Fred Hoiberg is not the ideal coach. Defense is barely an afterthought for typical Hoiberg-led AAU squads. Player development appears to be equally important. If the Bulls have a repeat of 15-16, a coaching change should be in the cards. Next level PGs tend to have overachieving college teams. In a down SEC, the 2015-16 Vanderbilt team went 19-12 and lost the play-in game to Wichita State. I watched that game and didn’t even notice the Commodore PG (9 pts on 3-9, 5 ast, 4 TOs). I may be getting the wrong read on this player, but I just don’t see him having a major impact in the NBA.
Comparison: Poor Man’s Bradley Beal
Marquese Chriss – 6’9”, 225lbs, 19-years-old (on July 2nd), Fendo
I’ll be completely honest: I have no idea what Marquese Chriss’s NBA career looks like. He spent his freshman year at the University of Washington as a long-neck/torso having pogo stick of a power forward/center who would alternately shock and awe you with his quick-jumping dunks, then drive you batty picking up unnecessary dumbass fouls. The world exists between laughter and tears though and Chriss is more than his peaks or valleys. But for the teams sitting in the roughly three through ten range where he’s projected, patience is a virtue I hope they have. Lorenzo Romar’s Huskies switched everything on defense last year with the result being point guards on centers and Chriss on point guards. He moves his feet well enough and is gifted with copious athletic gifts, but attempted to adjust to the NCAA’s updated quick whistle officiating, Chriss fouled out 15 times in 34 games and had another 10 games where he picked up at least four fouls. A lot of this can be attributed to biting on shot fakes or just terrible decisions on loose balls or rebounds. Subtly though, there his defensive decision making improved. He continued to pick up fouls throughout the season, but he as he adjusted to the tight whistles, he spent more and more time on the court – going from 21-22 minutes/game in November/December to 27-29 minutes in February/March. I call this out as evidence of an ability to adapt. For a guy who didn’t start playing hoops until later than most of his peers, the immediacy of any pro success is going to correlate directly to how quick he can adapt to NBA-level speed, skill, and physicality. Along with the fouls, the other low-key red flag at UW was a nonchalant dismissiveness. Chriss’s body language frequently communicated a sense of a player annoyed or frustrated at being challenged. If this characteristic is anything more than a blip, he’ll struggle in the NBA where he’ll be challenged every night of the year. But with a quick release on a quality jumper (35% on nearly two three attempts/game) and world class athleticism, he’ll get his chance – ideally with a team like the Nuggets or Boston where he’s in a low-pressure environment with quality coaching. From there, maybe he becomes Tyrus Thomas or Derrick Williams or some hyper-athletic peak Terrance Jones.