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Category Archives: Kansas

Scouting Dump #4, Part II: You have tools, but do you know what to do with them?

I had intended this to be just a two-part dump, but here we are, nearly three-thousand words on five players who fill me with uncertainty and maybe even doubt, well yes, lots of doubt.

Part I can be found here and includes the 11 games that were scouted during this dump. Through nine players, here’s the overall ranking:

  1. Usman Garuba
  2. Deni Avdija
  3. Kira Lewis Jr.
  4. Aaron Nesmith
  5. Theo Maledon
  6. Grant Riller
  7. Jahmi’Us Ramsey
  8. Devon Dotson
  9. Precious Achiuwa

5. Theo Maledon, ASVEL, trending up, Tier2:

As a narrow-shouldered 18-year-old playing among grown men in the competitive world of the Euroleague, Maledon exhibits a remarkable poise, maturity, and leadership. In my viewings, he’s shown himself to be surprisingly capable and competent as an on-floor communicator willing to direct older teammates into position on both sides of the ball which speaks somewhat to what I heard an announcer earlier this season describe him as having “a certain arrogance, confidence.”

Moxie matters and it translates to a calm, evenly paced style the 6-foot-5 18-year-old plays with. Positionally, he has great size and on the defensive side, he knows how to utilize it. Against Real Madrid, it was fun to see the contrast in defensive approach between Maledon and ASVEL’s younger Matthew Strazel. Strazel, a 17-year-old who looks like he could be the French cousin of Tre and Tyus Jones, played up in the jersey of Madrid’s veteran Facundo Campazzo with overactive hands bordering on recklessness while the more seasoned and mature Maledon opted for effectively sliding feet and bodying up the smaller Campazzo. ASVEL as a team plays a full court, aggressive defense that Maledon appears to be more than willing to adapt to. His defensive effort: moving his feet, sitting in a stance, navigating screens, are all present. I wonder about the long-term defensive upside given his slighter frame and OK quickness, but the effort and size will help.

Offensively, he plays a mostly clean game with a fluid handle, understanding of how to utilize screens and angles, and an ability to make basic, pre-packaged reads. He incorporates subtle hesitations and unexpected crossovers that help to keep defenders off-balance. Off these dribble moves, he’s adept at driving and kicking to open teammates. His ability to keep defenders guessing on ball screens is one of the more impressive traits I’ve seen. He’ll go away from screens with a quick first step or setup opponents one direction against a screen before hitting them with change of direction on compact crossovers. There’s something unorthodox to some of these directional changes and I wish I would’ve recorded a couple of them.

In my limited sample, he’s shown touch around the rim and ability to finish over length. I haven’t seen him play through contact as much, but he’s consistently operated around 40% FTr and is at 36% this season.

His catch-and-shoot three is more of a toss than a good, tight snap off the wrist. Off the dribble, his form looks more natural, but at present he’s just an average-to-below-average shooter which is fine given he’s not even 19 yet. Across 162 games in Europe and FIBA, he’s shooting 34% on nearly 500 threes.

The size and ability to change speeds remind me somewhat of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the three-inch difference in wingspan, the strength, and shooting all lean heavily to SGA’s favor to the point that comparison doesn’t add up. Per ESPN, his physical profile is similar to Delon Wright’s and I can see potential similarities there, although Wright was 23-years-old as a rookie and Maledon will be just 19. That four-year difference is massive and speaks to the Frenchman’s upside as a potential low-end NBA starting point or combo guard.

6. Grant Riller, Charleston, trending up, Tier3:

The 6-3 Riller is a better pro-ready prospect than Maledon, but he’s also more than four years older. With all due respect to Aaliyah, age is more than a number and thus Riller is behind young Theo.

Like watching N’Faly Dante devour 6-7 Terren Frank in EYBL competition, Riller the senior just seemed a class above his Colonial Athletic Association opponents. And as such, it created a handicap of sorts when checking in to see him cook on a nightly basis. For the game viewed here (hosting Drexel on Senior Night), Riller nonchalantly kicked ass in myriad ways: NBA range threes, head fakes, spin moves, pull-up jumpers, threes on the move, running jumpers, slashing with efficient angles, post-ups, side-step step backs, floaters, rinse, repeat ad infinitum. The breadth of unforced offensive skill was something to behold and the ease with which he fluidly read and reacted to the defense was surgical. Between catching the ball and shooting it, Riller has as much craft as anyone I saw in college basketball this year and some of that is out of necessity. He has a good frame at 6-3, 190 pounds with good shoulders and lean muscle, but he’s not a twitchy athlete. He’s not blurring past opponents like Kira Lewis Jr.or bulldogging defenders like a focused Anthony Edwards. The combination of handle, deception (via fakery), shot/touch, and understated strength/body control are deadly and Riller knows this. He plays to his strengths; which is a lot easier to do when your strength can be described as just getting to your spots.

In my viewing, Riller has shown himself to have some ability to read the floor and create for others, but it’s nowhere near as natural as his scoring instincts. His ability to anticipate and make advanced reads is heavily skewed towards scoring the ball. Some of this can be attributed to team need: in most scenarios, a look from Riller is more efficient than anything else Charleston is getting. He has a high basketball IQ, it’s just a matter of spreading it beyond scoring.

Defensively is where I was least impressed with him and where the level of competition appeared to be most evident. Against Drexel, he seemed put out at having to defend, was caught ball watching, and wandered off his man without communicating to teammates. His IQ and ability to anticipate plays was evident as he had a highlight help block thanks to an early rotation, but overall the effort uninspiring. In a small sample, it’s hard to hold this against him, but it was by far his least impressive attribute.

He’s not the player or shooter that CJ McCollum was in college, but he looks to be from the same family tree of undersized scoring twos/combo guards.

7. Jahmi’us Ramsey, Texas Tech, no change, Tier3:

The 6-4, nearly 200-pound Ramsey has a June 2001 birthday and in terms of age, would slot perfectly into the high school class of 2020. Instead, he’s a young freshman with buckets of talent on a team with an outsized role, and a misunderstanding of how to harness said talent in said bucket.

I first saw Ramsey as a junior in 2018 going head-to-head with Cam Reddish, late of the Atlanta Hawks, and walked away thinking of him as a twitchy defender, a competitor, a secondary initiator, an ultra-confident player capable of falling back on his physical ability if the world otherwise tipped sidewise.

Then the Mega Bemax pre-season game happened and Ramsey dropped 44 on the Serbian club made most noteworthy for producing Nikola Jokic and Goga Bitadze. This game and Tech’s faulty roster funneled Ramsey into the role of primary scorer, a role he wasn’t, and probably shouldn’t have been plugged into.

Scout: good length and athleticism for a two-guard, but probably lacking in height which, in some situations, he can make up for with his athleticism, particularly vertical. He’s twitchy, he’s strong, fluid as an athlete. Capable as a shooter (42% on 141 threes), handler, and passer including out of the pick-and-roll despite not-so-good Synergy numbers; vision translates in transition and half-court; lot of drive-and-kick to his game. Seamlessly and effectively utilizes head fakes and shot fakes as part of offensive attack. BBIQ is strong with improvisational give-and-go’s, flare outs off screens, and dump-offs/wraparounds off penetration. Some truly awful decision making on pull-up threes. For a 42% three-point shooter, it’s remarkable how many bad shots he takes. Some of this I attribute to shouldering too great a role in Tech’s point guard-lacking roster. There was no reliable creation for Ramsey or Davide Moretti. Senior Chris Clarke was their best passer, but as a non-shooting initiator off the bench, his creation ability was under-utilized. This lack of creation put the ball in Ramsey’s hands more than it should’ve been and the result was a lot of J.R. Smith-type shots.

Despite physical tools, appears to have struggled to maintain focus in Texas Tech’s defense. When engaged, uses length as a defensive cushion, moves feet well, can anticipate and help accordingly, strong hands to strip on digs, good timing as help side shot blocker (2.5% on steals and blocks). When floating mentally, which is often, he helps too far off shooters which is either a bad habit, lack of awareness, or too much trust in ability to help and recover; gets lost or confused in TT’s switching schemes, despite showing lateral flexibility and a willingness to embrace contact, is beaten off dribble far too often as he opens his hips. Some of the latter could be scheme, but too often there’s no help.

If Ramsey can comfortably adjust to lower usage (team-high 26% with TT) and improve his defensive focus, he can be a positive NBA player. Not just can, but should. If I was re-ranking, I’d probably move him above Riller based on age and upside. Arbitrary stat: Ramsey was the only player in D1 to have both steal and block rates 2.5% or higher while attempting over 135 threes and making at least 40% and is one of just 12 players in barttorvik’s database dating back to 2008 to accomplish it.

8. Devon Dotson, Kansas, no change, Tier3:

Dotson isn’t a player I’m terribly high on. His strength is overwhelmingly strong: quickness. It’s flirting with Kira Lewis Jr.levels of quick and destabilizes defense in the open or half court. Dotson is more physically developed than Lewis and nearly two years older. He can attack with either hand, although he seems partial to the left, can change direction at speed, finish with both hands, and finish through contact. But beyond scoring, penetrating, and just out-quicking opponents, his game is somewhat unremarkable.

As a passer, I haven’t seen much beyond basic reads. His 22.5% assist rate is likely bolstered (like the rest of his teammates’) by Udoka Azubuike. The whole team, rightly so, has a habit of using the seven-footer as a release valve of sorts and when there’s no other option available, toss it up to Udoka because even if he doesn’t score, he’ll at least catch it. I’m not going to knock Dotson for taking advantage of a weapon, but rather believe he could’ve taken even greater advantage in setting up the big man for more lobs or dump-offs; or anticipating help rotation, drive-and-kick with greater frequency. That being said, per Synergy, his P&R decision making (as shooter or passer) ranks in the high 70s to low 80th percentiles. I’ll give Dotson some grace in their preference for Marcus Garrett’s creation to Dotson’s. The presence of Garrett over two seasons has reduced the need for Dotson’s creation and limited his in-game reps. It’s a theory, at least.

As a shooter, Dotson was 31% from threes and just average on catch-and-shoot threes (one point/possession, per Synergy). He shot 32% on 53 attempts at Under Armour in 2017 and was 36% on 91 attempts as a freshman. All told that’s 33% on 267 tries in an 83-game sample. His mechanics are mostly unmemorable – for better or worse, which is ultimately a good thing. He’s been an 81% free throw shooter at Kansas and, with time and work, he should be able to strive for average from behind the arc. He’s not bad enough that teams can completely play off of him. Even at 32%, he can attack closeouts and utilize his speed. That said, even as a freshman when he shot 36%, Ashton Hagans sagged off and dared him to shoot. Given his speed and untrustworthiness from three, this will be an NBA thing as well.

On the defensive side, I don’t have nearly the sample of notes as I do on Dotson’s offense. His speed and reaction time is enough to create disruption and his 2.9% steal rate over 66 games evidences that, but in the game against Texas Tech when he matched up with Davide Moretti, he was awkward and uncertain. I wasn’t watching specifically for his defense, but it became something unavoidable.

Like Ramsey, Dotson operates from a solid foundation of physical tools, but unlike Ramsey, I believe his strong skills are less valuable and his compatibility narrower. Tune in in June when I talk myself into Dotson being the better prospect.

9. Precious Achiuwa, Memphis, trending up (but probably shouldn’t be), Tier3:

I’ve probably seen more games of Achiuwa than any other player on this list which probably says more about my ability to prioritize than anything else. Also, after writing about him, I’d probably drop him down a few slots, but we’ll let the record stand and fix it in a future amended board.

More than any other Memphis Tiger, Achiuwa benefited from the departure of James Wiseman as he was able to have the center position all to himself where he led the team in minutes played. He came into the season listed as 6-9, but feels taller and plays bigger. In his 31 games at Memphis, he registered a 6.4% block rate. It’s on the defensive side of the ball that he’s most impactful and impressive. He’ll turn 21 for his rookie year and despite being older than most freshmen, Achiuwa is painfully raw. The rawness is less noticeable on the defensive because he’s shown an ability to leverage his length and athleticism in a variety of defensive scenarios with the most effective being rim protection. He’s not a great shot blocker, but he’s already showing an aptitude for using verticality to disrupt shots rather than exclusively trying to block them and he with his athleticism, he has better-than-normal hangtime that allows him to linger in the air a split second longer than most guys, even on a verticality play. For his size, he’s mostly agile and can switch onto smaller guards. He seems to take a level of pride in his switchability and while he can be had with shot fakes, it’s ultimately a positive attribute. If that’s the good of his defense, the bad is his consistency and focus. There are lapses on switches, ball watching that leads to poor positioning, and generally unreliable awareness. There are times, like on box outs, where you can see him standing upright, watching the ball and suddenly the lightbulb goes off, “oh shit, I need to box out” followed by a scramble to put a body on someone.

In terms of effort, Achiuwa is not lacking. He has a high motor and a bit of a nose for the ball. Since I started watching him at Montverde Academy, I’ve sounded the same refrain: regardless of how you feel about his game, you always notice him. This ability to standout either in running the floor, scrambling for loose balls, or soaring out of nowhere for highlight blocks is a skill that I imagine a 16-year-old Andrei Kirilenko had.

If Achiuwa’s effort and motor are his calling cards and his defense is effective, but unrefined, then his offense is a hot mess. He shot a respectable 33% on 40 threes, 64% at the rim, and had a 51% FTr, but don’t be fooled, he produced on offense in spite of himself. My notes are littered with confusion: “Seems either incapable or uninterested in throwing a fake,” “egregious travel on P&R catch,” “if it’s basic, he can do it,” “trying to attack off dribble and goes nowhere à winds up throwing risky jump pass /eyeroll,” “Airball on C&S3 à just not his shot/game,” “stubborn as a mule trying to force shots in contested space.” It goes on, but I hope the point is conveyed. Going back to Montverde, he’s fancied himself as something of a passer/playmaker and while this seems to be less of an emphasis with Memphis, it still shows its ugly face on his 30 assists to 87 turnovers (~1:3 ratio). ::Insert Pusha T YUUGH::

There’s a productive player living somewhere in Achiuwa, but there’s so much cleanup and TLC that it’s far from a foregone conclusion he’ll reach whatever potential he has. It’s more likely that you’ll forever being trying to strike a tenuous balance between what he adds and what he takes away. To borrow from Fran Fraschilla’s immortal “two years away from being two years away,” Achiuwa is probably a year away from being a year away.

From Ottumwa with Love: Jay Scrubb and Tyon Grant-Foster

The following is a piece based on a few hours spent in Ottumwa, Iowa (pop. ~25,000) at Indian Hills Community College (IHCC) watching a JUCO basketball game with the principles being Jay Scrubb (John A. Logan) and Tyon Grant-Foster (IHCC).

The Hellyer Life Center is home to the Indian Hills Community College Warriors men’s basketball team. It’s a small gym with modern plastic maroon-colored pull-out bleachers and an upper balcony of sorts. To reach the court level, you walk down a staircase and your proximity to the court is that of a high school gym. Everything and everyone is accessible. I’d ordered my tickets for the game online, apparently I was the only person to do this because I saw my name handwritten on a sheet of paper at the ticketing desk when I showed up. I was given my choice of any open seat and chose center court: eight dollars.

I grew up in Des Moines, Iowa, about 90 minutes northwest of Ottumwa and when I was just a skinny teenager with a full head of hair in the late 90s, knew of IHCC for its prodigiously winning men’s team. But in all my years, I’d never made the trek to see the JUCO juggernaut and was reminded of their dominance upon walking into the Hellyer Center and seeing the banners: 89-straight wins and three straight national championships from 1997 to 1999. They were led by Cincinnati Bearcat and eventual Euro MVP, JUCO par excellence, Pete Mickeal.

The stage was more than up-to-par for a battle between the country’s top two JUCO players: 6-foot-6 wing Jay Scrubb from 4th ranked John A. Logan, committed to Louisville and 6-foot-7 wing Tyon Grant-Foster from IHCC, committed to Kansas.

This was less a head-to-head comparison either in my intent (I didn’t go down there to crown Scrubb or Grant-Foster) or in their on-court matchup (they were rarely matched up with each other), but drawing comparisons and contrasts is only natural and the first ones we make are typical surface level. Scrubb looks the part: he’s more physically developed, lean but with square shoulders and the face of a young man with mustache and goatee. He looks like he was cast for the role and carries himself as such. By contrast, Grant-Foster has the look of a high schooler, his facial features soft, his chin hairless, his long arms dangle but without much definition.

And of course, there are my own biases and preconceptions. Scrubb was the prime attraction. He averaged 20-a-game as a JUCO freshman on 55-46-79 shooting. He was the only freshman to make the JUCO D1 First Team All-America squad and prior to committing to Louisville, he flirted with going pro after his sophomore season at Logan. Scrubb was the main attraction, Grant-Foster an intrigue, a recent Kansas-commit who averaged just 8 points as a freshman; I was more intrigued by KU coach Bill Self’s interest than my own.

JAY SCRUBB:

Off the opening tip, IHCC made their intentions with Scrubb clear by face guarding him with the solidly-built 6-2 Chris Childs (it does not appear he’s related to the former NBA player though of course it’s entirely possible). This portended what would be a long night for the Cardinal commit who would struggle get breathing room for all 38 of his on-court minutes.

Breathing room be damned, it was easy to see how Scrubb’s game comes together. At 6-6 with a 6-9 wingspan and listed at 220 pounds (this seems generous but people hide weight in strange places), he has a pro ready frame though his functional positional strength looks to be an area he can improve upon (more on this below).

He moves extremely well, on and off-ball, guarding ball or defending off-ball. He gets low with a strong knee bend on post-ups, which appear to be part of his repertoire though, again, his strength holding a seal is something I’ll get into, and does the same guarding the ball. His lateral and hip movement are effortless and his focus and intensity, particularly on-ball, are high; he locks in well. Off-ball, he had the occasional bad habit of turning his head and losing sight of ball in order to stick with man, but this is relatively easy to correct.

Scrubb’s been reported as having a 40-inch vertical and his functional elevation was easy to observe; most notably attacking the offensive glass and on his pull-up jumper. He averaged over one-and-a-half blocks as a freshman and given his lift and length, it’s easy to see why. In this game, he attacked the offensive glass, but with limited success. IHCC was great putting a body on Scrubb and his instincts were to elevate for boards instead of seeking out optimal position. That said, he shows good awareness attacking the o-glass in the first clip below. Unfortunately, going backdoor against an overplaying defender wasn’t a route he frequently sought out.

On the night, Scrubb shot just 4-15 from the field which isn’t that big of an issue. The IHCC defense was keyed in and focused on slowing him down. John A. Logan surprisingly did very little in terms of off-ball actions to help create space for him, opting for the occasional ball screen or post-up, but mostly settling for a balanced shot distribution. While I didn’t chart all 15 of Scrubb’s looks, I want to say 13 or 14 were contested and probably 11 or 12 were outside the paint.

He’s clearly more jump shooter than slasher and emphasizes his elevation to create space on pull-ups. The errant try below felt like a shot more out of frustration than anything else. While it’s a bad miss (and many of his misses were bad bricks), the lift and form are evident. His mechanics don’t break down from three and while I felt his release could use a bit of work, his balance and body control are strong:

As mentioned above, Scrubb sought out post-ups throughout the game and while he was able to establish position, he struggled to maintain it. Credit to IHCC’s coterie of defenders who, even when losing position, contested all entry passes, but some of this was an inability from Scrubb to hold the defender on his hip for extended periods. I don’t anticipate him doing a lot of posting up in the ACC, but it’s interesting to see how and where strength does or doesn’t translate. While not being the strongest player, he didn’t shy away from physical contact on either side of the ball or lose his cool over IHCC’s physical play.

In a lot of ways, seeing how a player reacts to adversity is ideal and between his shot being off and IHCC’s parade of physical defenders, Scrubb played within himself with the exception of a short stretch in the 2nd half when he sought out contested jumpers. His effort remained high and his offensive gravity allowed teammates more operating space. He projects out as an off-ball player, ideally operating off-the-catch with catch-and-shoots and attacking closeouts. In this 38-minute sample, he threw a couple of good passes and lost his dribble in traffic a couple times, but ultimately the sample was too small to draw any significant conclusions on his creation and playmaking though it seems secondary to seeking out his shot.

GRANT-FOSTER:

Part Jordan Crawford, part Jamal Crawford? Maybe it’s the similar skin tone or looping languid limbs, or maybe it’s the sharp handle, comfort freelancing, or heat check pull-ups, but Tyon Grant-Foster brought to mind those two Crawfords.

On a night when NBA scouts and Bill Self were in attendance, Grant-Foster navigated some early foul trouble to put together a signature second half. After a mostly forgettable first half marred by foul trouble, I didn’t write off Grant-Foster, but rather shrugged my shoulders and envisioned him as a future end-of-the-bench Jayhawk.

That he came out with a 22-point second half is less interesting than how he did it. While playing wing, Grant-Foster is one of IHCC’s primary initiators though he’s presently much better suited to create his own shot instead of creating for others. This is evidenced by a negative assist-to-turnover rate over his 34 career games at IHCC (1.5 turnovers for every one assist). That’s not to say he doesn’t vision or awareness as he exhibited good feel passing off the dribble, rather it’s an area he’s working to improve.

But getting his own shot? In both half court and transition, he showed ability to break down defenders, rise for the pull-up, and finish in traffic. For Grant-Foster, like Jamal Crawford, it all starts with the handle. An assortment of hang dribbles, hesitations, and crossovers kept defenders off-balance all night. Once he achieved advantage, he opted primarily for pull-up threes or slashing attacks. From deep, he shot 4 of 7, including some huge clutch makes while IHCC clawed back from a double-digit deficit, but there were some questionable attempts and his release could probably use refinement. Grant-Foster doesn’t hold his follow-through at all which isn’t a death knell to the jumper, but over longer samples, I’d expect struggles with accuracy. In the clip below, his wiggle and confidence are on display, but that quick release, almost fling, is worrisome:

When not banging in heat check threes, Grant-Foster attacked the basket. He got to the line seven times and showed natural instincts for getting to the rim. His wiggle combined with the threat of the outside shot allowed him to beat primary defenders. His change of pace and direction allowed him to beat help defenders while his length, craft, and touch helped him to finish inside. And while not the explosive leaper Scrubb is, Grant-Foster showed good lift finishing one dunk and just missing a second one in traffic.

Where he can expand his attack is in creating for others off-the-dribble. He’s good enough to beat defenders and while he was able to connect on a couple of drive-and-dumps, a combination of spacing and more consistent awareness will help bump him to the next level. The other area that was of some concern was his dependency on somewhat of an isolation-heavy, freelance approach. IHCC desperately needed him to takeover this game, but he’s prone to pounding the ball east-to-west (and back, and back, and you get the point) trying to shake a defender and there’s likely fine tuning to occur there. That said, I’m somewhat loathe to mess with a player’s natural expression, particularly if it’s effective and would be interested to see if and how frequently Grant-Foster goes on these forays. He’s not a selfish player, but he is a self-interested, confident one.

Defensively, I didn’t get near as good a sense of his game as I did Scrubb’s. He was engaged on the defensive end and looked to pounce on passing lanes at times, but by focusing on Scrubb’s offensive game, I missed out on finer details of his defense. Purely looking at his stats, he definitely makes an impact defensively. Through a short two games, he’s averaging 1.5 steals and a single block, but last season he put up a gaudy 7.5 blocks/40 minutes. That number’s ridiculous enough that I wonder if he was just leaping at everything trying to swat balls into the bleachers.

Driving home in the dark with a quarter moon hanging low on the horizon, smoke curling into the sky from factories and plants sitting miles off the highway, it still struck me as random that out here, in southern Iowa lives and breathes a JUCO basketball hotbed that’s produced 22 current NCAA players, over 30 current pros, and five NBA draft picks. My dad had driven up to Ottumwa from where he lives in Kansas City and was kind enough to bake some chocolate chip cookies for me and I drove, eating cookies while the moon finally dropped below the horizon, pondering that basketball history and the spaces being carved out in the present by young men half my age like Jay Scrubb and Tyon Grant-Foster. Future pros in some league somewhere; perhaps as obscure as Ottumwa.

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