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Just messing around, getting triple doubles
Category Archives: vanderbilt
April 14, 2020Posted by on
I wasn’t sure we’d get here and thought about throwing in the towel numerous times, but against better judgment, I’ve spewed out a few thousand more words on a particularly curious set of players and in the process realized that I’ve mis-ranked probably close to half of these players. I’ll let my mistakes sit plain in the light of day, free to be criticized, ridiculed, laughed at. Alas, even the Mona Lisa is falling apart ..
- Usman Garuba
- Deni Avdija
- Kira Lewis Jr.
- Aaron Nesmith
- Theo Maledon
- Grant Riller
- Jahmi’Us Ramsey
- Devon Dotson
- Precious Achiuwa
10. Kevin McCullar, Texas Tech, trending up, Tier4:
I saw McCullar for the first time in March and it wasn’t love at first sight or anything, but it was a pleasant surprise in the sense of discovery that accompanies something new and unexpected. I tuned in to watch Jahmi’Us Ramsey and walked away semi-smitten with the 19-year-old redshirt frosh, McCullar.
Listed at 6-foot-6, 195-pounds, McCullar appears a bit bigger and plays bigger. He’s flashed strength in contested rebounding situations and shown a range of defensive versatility; able to toggle between guards and forwards without giving away advantages. And where I saw evidence of Ramsey struggling to smoothly integrate into Texas Tech’s defensive scheme, McCullar seems like a natural, a fish in Chris Beard’s water if you will. He’s rarely out of position, is quick to help and switch, and some of that may be attributable to him being in Lubbock a year ago and having familiarity with the program.
Offensively, he’s purely a supporting player with little actual offensive responsibility and this presently suits him fine. While just a 28% shooter from three and 30% from the corners, his ability to stretch the floor isn’t as good as it needs to be for him to be an optimal supporting piece. Like other non-shooters, he finds ways to contribute without adding floor space. He’s comfortable roaming the baseline, often ignored because he’s not a threat from distance, and flashing into space. From there, he’s able to quickly diagnose the floor and attack the rim with quick load time and enough strength to finish through contact or dump off ahead of rotations.
He’s not flashy, but with a near-4% steal rate and 58 TS, he brings a lot to the table without taking much away.
11. Malachi Flynn, San Diego State, trending up, Tier4:
My primary in-depth experience with Flynn was a shoddy 6-20 shooting night where he forced up one contested pull-up jumper after the next, hitting just one of his first 10 attempts, but of course that performance was highly irregular and untimely for Flynn and SDSU.
His Synergy profile is excellent with a nearly synchronistic relationship between effectiveness and frequency – IE; he was relatively most effective (96th percentile) as a P&R ball handler and 40% of his possessions came there.
Even in his struggles as a shooter against Utah State, his precision as a P&R maestro was evident. His timing was exquisite: in the clip below, he takes an extra dribble which creates the desired time and space to complete the pass. He shows a plus-vision and awareness in both P&R and open play situations.
And despite a poor shooting effort, Flynn was able to create good looks and spacing. He has a small but strong build accompanied by a tight handle, and good power that allows for balance and body control. He has touch in the paint as seen on a 68% shooting at the rim, but I worry a bit about his ability to finish over size and length in the NBA.
Flynn is a good guard I need to spend more time with. I slot him behind Grant Riller and Devon Dotson, but don’t believe there’s a massive gap between these three players. A person could place them in any order of three and easily make a rational case to defend their ordering.
12. Matthew Strazel, ASVEL, trending up, N/A:
Strazel is just 17 with an August birthday and isn’t draft eligible for a couple years yet, but he already has 16 high-level Euroleague games to his credit. I tuned in for his club’s match against Euro powerhouse, Real Madrid and if we’re being honest, I should have Strazel as an incomplete, but I enjoyed the feisty guard enough to share some thoughts.
As mentioned in my Theo Maledon write-up, he looks like the younger French cousin of Tyus and Tre Jones with a similar skin tone, torso-to-leg ratio, and over-exuberant on-ball defense. In a chicken/egg scenario, I’m uncertain if Strazel has always played an aggressive, reaching defense or if he’s a product of ASVEL’s Nolan Richardson-styled pressing. The source partially matters, but against Madrid’s Facundo Campazzo, he was an unrelenting pest, applying pressure to the older guard for 85 feet of court without any letup. The result was a persistent foul trouble on unnecessary reaches, but with good footwork, strength, and lateral movement, it’s easy to see an effective defender in Strazel as he fights through screens, exhibits consistent effort, and is able to cover ground laterally while continuing to apply pressure.
When able to dictate the game with the ball in his hands, Strazel’s speed and quickness are most evident and his greatest strength. For some younger guards, this is easier to see in transition when they can build up speed, but Strazel’s able to exhibit quickness and burst off a standstill and repeatedly beat Madrid’s seasoned defenders off the bounce and with direction changes; the 29-year-old Campazzo looked like he was standing in mud trying to keep up with the younger Frenchman. He showed touch around the rim (clip below) and competence running pick-and-pops (they didn’t run much P&R with Strazel at point). There was a lack of improvisational creation which isn’t to say it’s not there, but it wasn’t emphasized. Over 47 games in multiple leagues, he’s averaging around three assists to every 1.5 turnovers.
I’m intrigued to watch his development, but I do hold the small stature (6-0, 178-pounds) against his longer-term prospects. Even two inches taller would go a long way given his quickness and touch.
13. Saben Lee, Vanderbilt, trending up, Tier4:
I first saw Lee in November of 2018 and was immediately captivated by his speed and pop. Finding out his dad is former NFL running back, Amp Lee, only ratcheted up the intrigue. Lee the younger is 6-2, 183-pounds of lean muscle who could be better-designed for football than basketball.
And yet, he plays somewhat like a football player, almost with a Dwyane Wade-ish carelessness for his body which careens around the court from one end to the next, faster than everyone save Kira Lewis Jr. and impressively strong given his lean build.
In 96 career games, he’s produced a FTr of 55% and was one of just three players 6-2 or shorter this season to attempt at least 29 dunks, per barttorvik.
I think, in part at least, I’ve been blinded by the electric athleticism and the thumper-like ethos with which he attacks the game, but basketball life is more than violent dunks.
Lee’s shown an ability to create for others and led Vanderbilt with a career-best 32% assist rate against a career-low 16% turnover rate. His judgment and decision making improved over his three seasons at Vandy, as did his shooting which peaked this past year with a 58 TS. His offensive skill developed in tandem with the improved stats. He’s shown good vision in the half court and is able to find the open man on drive-and-kicks, which is frequently an option given his speed and ability to get past the first defender. Passes zip off his fingers and are typically on-target, but he still has a propensity to get out of control on drives and/or strap on blinders for the basket. With the speed and quickness, he mixes in hesitations that are somewhat unguardable given the acceleration off the pause. He’s also shown an ability this season to link together more than one move at time – crossover into up-and-under with a head fake and necessary footwork.
His shooting (33% on 265 college threes) leaves something to be desired, but if he can continue to develop his ability to run the pick-and-roll and potentially use his strength/athleticism to defend both guard spots (will be a stretch against bigger twos), he’s athletic enough with just enough skill to carve out a spot in the league. Key for him, like a lot of college guys, will be figuring out how to remain effective with fewer opportunities.
14. John Petty, Alabama, no change, Tier4: no updates from 2/28 post
15. Jared Butler, Baylor, no change, Tier4: no updates from 2/28 post
16. DJ Jeffries, Memphis, no change, Tier4:
Obviously he didn’t appear in the Memphis/Houston game on March 8th, but I wanted to note my fondness all the same and if we’re being honest, this is probably a bit of an over-reach for Jeffries, but as we say, the heart wants what the heart wants … even if the mind knows better. Jeffries turned 20 in December which, among 158 freshman birthdays I have in my “database,” ranks as the 15th oldest. I don’t believe age alone can or should deep six a prospect’s status, but if he was 19 in December, I’d be even more confident in his development.
Jeffries is a big 6-7, nearly 230 pounds and had his freshman season limited to 19 games due to a partially torn PCL. In that time, he showed effectiveness as a rim protector (4.2% blocks) and shooter (39% on 41 threes). He finished well around the rim (72%) and was sound (74%) from the line at an anemic 22% FTr.
Stats and rates aside, Jeffries compliments his size with a good motor. He goes hard on both ends and is able to anticipate particularly well defensively. At times that same energy works against him as it feels like the game can get going too fast. This was less evident as the season went on, but it still cropped up with the occasional forced play, pushing the ball against a disadvantage, or firing up an air ball in transition.
As I look back over my notes from EYBL, I see the same propensity to rush the jumper or force plays on offense. He had more playmaking opportunities with his Bluff City Legends team, but showed passing vision and improvisational ability passing off the live dribble.
He kind of reminds me of a harder-playing, smaller version of Naz Reid with more defensive ability and commitment, but like Reid, an offense that needs to mature before he can reach his potential.
17. Nate Hinton, Houston, trending up, Tier4:
Like Strazel, Hinton, a 6-5, 210-pound sophomore should probably be an incomplete, but damn it, we must, at times, rush to judgment, however rash it may be.
Hinton’s a bit tricky in that he played big on a small Houston team and had the mentality and physicality to pull it off. As a 6-5 forward, he led Houston in rebounding and snagged nearly 16% of all available rebounds. With strong hands, active ball pursuit, and a willingness to mix it up for contested rebounds, he can out-rebound his size and position. These same traits are prevalent in his defensive makeup. Hinton can guard against a range of perimeter players and is able to get low into a defensive crouch and harass with active hands without committing fouls. In my limited viewing, he didn’t spend time defending Memphis bigs, nor does he project as a rim protector with just eight blocks in 68 career games at Houston.
On the attack side, Hinton’s profile inspires a bit of meh. He’s a shooter, but not a knockdown kind of guy: 39% on 119 threes this season and 44% on corner threes. In the game I watched, he made six shots and five were off-the-dribble pull-ups; primarily long twos. This was an aberration from his season where the bulk of his spot up possessions (61.3%) become no dribble jumpers, per Synergy, and this is what he’s good at with 1.16 points/possession against .79 ppp on pull-ups. I didn’t witness him attacking the rim much, but he’s just average there hitting 55% of his shots at the rim per barttorvik.
Hinton is a good intangibles player with ability as a spot up shooter and above average effectiveness as an on-ball and team defender. If he can hit the three at a similar rate in the NBA and defend well against much better players, he can stick in the league, but the lack of finishing and the jump in competition level give me pause. If I re-ranked these players, he’d likely drop a tier, but not a ton of spots.
Tier 5: more ranking, less writing (not sure if my audience is saying this or if I’m saying it to myself)
18. Lester Quinones, Memphis, no change, Tier5:
I wrote the below about Quinones back in November and while I still subscribe to those comments, I want to add that he’s a super smart player, is able to direct teammates into position on both sides of the ball and carries himself as a leader. There’s a lot of polish needed though and I’m not convinced Memphis is the place for that.
6-5, 220-pound combo guard. I’m not convinced he’s actually 220, but he wears short shorts and goes BTTW. Strong lower body, makes hustle plays, competes, likes to shoot (24% on 5 3pas/gm), 14-15 from line (93%), touch comes and goes.
19. Scotty Pippen Jr. Vanderbilt, trending up, Tier5:
I saw Pippen Jr a few times with Sierra Canyon and always thought he could play as he has good feel, high BBIQ, and plays at a controlled pace, but suspected his slight frame would hold him back and in some cases (defensively, particularly against quick guards and finishing at the rim – just 51% per barttorvik) it has, but Pippen was extremely effective as a freshman with a beastly 68.7% FTr. He was one of four players in the country and the only from a P5 conference with an FTr above 65% and assist rate over 25%. Once he gets his dad’s growth spurt, it’s on. In hindsight, I’d likely bump him up two to three spots.
20. Terrence Shannon Jr. Texas Tech, no change, Tier5:
6-7 lefty forward, plus athlete (see clips), probably thinks too much at this point, and even when effective (see clips), it’s sometimes in spite of questionable choices. Needs to develop better instincts and applicable fundamentals, improve decisiveness and focus. Good shooter from the line with a 52.5% FTr who has NBA potential.
21. Kai Jones, Texas, trending up, Tier5:
Consensus top-50 recruit at 6-11, 212-pounds. Skinny kid spends lot of time on perimeter for Texas and has a decent looking jumper despite poor percentages (7-24 on threes, 3-15 on non-rim twos). Flashes of creation off dribble (see clip) so there’s some potential attacking closeouts. Has some perimeter defensive mobility and was deployed at times as the tip of the spear on Texas’s press. Nearly 7% block rate.
22. Jaden Shackelford, Alabama, no change, Tier5:
Something to be said for guys who can miss five in a row and chuck without pause on the sixth. That’s Shackelford and Alabama with Nate Oats as coach is the perfect spot for him. Surprised he had a 31% FTr; one of four players in country (Markus Howard and Anthony Edwards included) to attempt over 230 (235) threes with FTr that high, per barttorvik. And, to his credit (I think?) did it with a 21% usage rate compared to the 29% and higher from the other qualifiers.
23. Udoka Azubuike, Kansas, trending up, Tier5:
Huge (7-0 with 7-7 wingspan, listed at 270-pounds) with improving mobility and doesn’t turn 21 until September. Shot 41.6% on 315 free throws in four seasons, shoots no jumpers. Can he purely be a roll man and rim protector? Age is in his favor and he’s shown a lot of development since arriving at Kansas, but anything more than a rotation big-to-spot starter seems like a reach. Probably deserves to be higher, but in this same tier.
24. Sam Merrill, Utah State, trending up, Tier5:
6-5ish with a solid build and 47-42-89 shooting splits for his Utah State career (759 threes and 503 FTs), finished career with 62 TS in 132 games. Turns 24 in mid-May, has lightning quick release and range, can make basic reads. Lacking in burst both vertically and laterally. Missed his only dunk attempt in college career. Seems like a stretch to stick in the NBA, but between shot, quick release, and size, it’s possible.
25. Marcus Garrett, Kansas, trending up, Tier5:
Kansas’s best initiator and best defender; a 6-5 near-200-pound combo guard. Struggles shooting (33% on 52 attempts this year, 61% on 92 FTs), but has made strides since freshman year (27% on threes, 49% on FTs). Lot of craft with the ball that I fear will be underutilized until he can shoot at a better clip. Is he good enough as an initiator and defender to sacrifice spacing in a second unit? It’s doubtful, but can he be a fifth man as a secondary initiator with a shooting unit? Perhaps.
TIERS 6 & 7: 20-man lightning round
26. Boogie Ellis, Memphis, trending down, Tier6:
Smallish (6-3, 175-pounds) combo guard who gets after it defensively and shoots a pretty shot, but can’t make shots (33-32-68).
27. Ochai Agbaji, Kansas, no change, Tier6:
6-5 wing with 6-8 wingspan, has bit of handle/wiggle, but always fades to background with this Kansas group. Nothing bad, but nothing stands out either.
28. Christian Braun, Kansas, trending up, Tier6:
Solid build/shoulders as 6-5, 205-pound frosh who turns 19 in mid-April. Deliberate with exaggerated and effective ball fakes; can shoot it off catch (44% on 72 3pas) or attack off dribble and get to rim or make pass. Per Synergy, 94th percentile on spot up possessions (71 total possessions) and 99th percentile as P&R ball handler (18 total possessions). If I re-ranked, I’d likely slot him between Pippen Jr and Shannon Jr. I like Mr. Braun.
29. Camren Wynter, Drexel, trending up, Tier6:
Saw him by chance while watching Grant Riller. Decent size as a point guard (6-2, 175), but he plays both on and off-ball and shows good instincts in both positions. Lot of cuts and setups for cuts – fake towards ball and when defender momentum shifts with him, bursting the opposite direction. Probably not good enough shooter (35% on 190 career threes, 72% on 190 FTAs) to get by with average size and athleticism. Probably closer to the 36-37 group in this set.
30. Andrew Jones, Texas, trending up, Tier6:
Blown away by how good he looks as a 22-year-old sophomore who battled leukemia over the past two years. Former top-25 RSCI, got better as season went on including three-game stretch averaging 18p/game while making 11-19 threes. Showed lot of craft attacking off the bounce, able to get his own shot or drive-and-kick/dump. Partial to seeking out his own shot at this point.
31. Donovan Williams, Texas, no change, Tier6:
Gangly freshman wing averaged three points/game on 37-24-70 shooting. Wears knee-high socks that make him look even skinnier like Elliot Perry used to do. Potential to be blown away by strong wind although listed at 180-pounds with a 6-6 frame, excellent as a leaper, but struggles with strength and contested rebounds/loose balls. Can make basic reads and the shot isn’t broken. Ultimately needs to develop core strength and is over-ranked here.
32. Dylan Disu, Vanderbilt, trending up, Tier6:
6-9 freshman shooter/floor spacer, shot 29% on 173 threes in 32 games (over five 3pas/gm); 75% 3PAr. Two stocks/game with 2.2% steal rate and 3.7% block rate. Appears to have good length and standing reach, shows ability to anticipate on defensive side. Uncertain about athleticism, but needs to develop offensively or at least get better shooting it.
33. Quentin Grimes, Houston, no change, Tier6:
True sophomore doesn’t turn 20 until May; has good size at 6-5, 210-pounds with square shoulders. Had shown ability as a playmaker/passer in high school, able to see and think the game, but something or other happened in Lawrence and his confidence appeared to fracture. Form on jumper is still clean, but release looks a little awkward at times, like his wrist whips out to the side. Looks the part with the frame, shot, and clean handle, but there’s an edge that’s missing or was lost along the way.
34. Tyson Etienne, Wichita State, trending down, Tier6:
No clue what went wrong for the Shockers this year, but they’ve had something akin to a mass exodus and as of this writing, Etienne is still there. Is cousin of DeAndre Jordan and nephew of Marcus Camby. Good shooter from distance (39% on 160 tries), but struggled mightily from two (35%) and at the rim (46%). More of an off-ball player, but at 6-1, despite a muscular upper body, it’s hard to see his game translating at NBA levels unless he can finish better. Has some burst and makes basic pass reads, but shooting is his calling card.
35. Neemias Queta, Utah State, trending down, Tier6:
The only Portuguese prospect on this list, Queta is 7-feet-tall with a 7-4 wingspan, inconsistent footwork, a lack of mobility and flexibility, but surprisingly impressive passing ability including some watered down Wilt Chamberlain-esque passing to cutters out of the post. Not all 7-footers are adept as rim protectors, but in the Mountain West, Queta is effective both blocking shots and generally protecting the goal/acting as a deterrent (9.4% block rate over 57 career games). He’s not the quickest or most agile and against SDSU, struggled to contain 6-11 Yanni Wetzel. He’s probably better than he was as a freshman, but improvements around the margins (passing, reading the floor, free throw shooting) while he continues to lumber and be a slow load big aren’t enough to enhance his pro prospects.
36. Dexter Dennis, Wichita State, trending up, Tier6:
Good NBA body at 6-5, 207 with definition and some bulk; utilizes effective footwork with pivots and patience to find openings on offensive end. Capable attacking off bounce and enough strength/body control with touch to finish over size/length. Inconsistent to poor finding bodies to box out on the defensive glass. Was 37% on twos and 45% at the rim (per barttorvik) this past season. That’s not good.
37. Davide Moretti, Texas Tech, trending up, Tier6:
22-year-old 6-3 junior shooter probably destined to excel in Europe (he’s Italian and has played in FIBA events since 2013) unless he gets an unlikely growth spurt. Career shooting splits: 49% (twos), 40% (threes – 416 3pas), 90% (FTs – 235 FTAs), and 62 TS. Scraps and doesn’t shy away from contact, but size and athleticism will be massive hurdles to overcome at NBA level.
38. Chris Clarke, Texas Tech, no change, Tier7:
Odd player, kind of hunched over, plays low to the ground at 6-5, 215. Above average passer and rebounder; has plus-strength, hands, and strong base which he utilizes defensively. Likes to use off arm while dribbling almost like a stiff-arm to hold defenders at bay. Reads and anticipates game well on both sides of ball. Dennis Rodman-like aversion to shooting (seven FGAs/40min) and not particularly good at it (2-12 from three, 48% on twos, 56% at the rim, no dunks). Made 14 of 33 threes (42%) as a junior at Virginia Tech, but was 4-21 (19%) in previous two seasons.
39. Marcus Sasser, Houston, no change, Tier7:
Strong-built combo guard at 6-1, 200 is nephew of SMU’s Jeryl Sasser and Texas Tech’s Jason Sasser. Those Sassers combined for over four-thousand career NCAA points. Sasser the younger doesn’t project to be that type of scorer (eight points/game on 36-35-76 as a freshman), but I like the physical frame combined with competitive, rugged defense and a decent shot from three (73% 3PAr). If I re-ranked, he’d be closer to #50 with Will Baker and Clarence Nadolny.
40. Caleb Mills, Houston, trending down, Tier7:
Leading scorer for a 23-win Houston team, Mills, like Sasser, is a smallish (6-3, 165) combo guard. Unlike Sasser, he’s of slight build and erratic shot selection. He’s a gunner whose go-to shot/move is a one-legged fade/drifting jumper. Despite a smaller frame, he’s strong enough to absorb contact (61% at the rim) and carry a 29% usage rate. Shows some ability in the drive-and-kick game, but is extremely partial to getting his own shots even though he’s only 33% on non-rim twos (on 180 attempts). Would bump up to #34 in a re-rank.
41. Courtney Ramey, Texas, no change, Tier7:
Not really sure how I feel about Ramey. As a freshman, I thought he looked smaller than his listed 6-3, but as a soph, I noted he looked taller. Players grow, but like the Geto Boys, I feel like my mind’s playing tricks on me. Paranoid confusion aside, I liked Ramey more as a freshman when he appeared to play a greater role as an initiator and shot the three better (38% against 31%). He can still create his own looks and has decent form on his pull-up, but the BBIQ I saw frequently as a freshman just wasn’t there with regularity. Some of that could be adjusting to the switch from Kerwin Roach to Jones or just non-linear development. After all, his free throws and non-rim twos improved significantly.
42. Yanni Wetzell, San Diego State, trending up, Tier7:
Fun New Zealander at 6-10, 240, but all out of eligibility after this season. Was more than able to hold his own both laterally and vertically against the higher-ranked Queta; able to beat him on contested boards and beat him with quickness/decisiveness out of the post. Plus effort and IQ, but not great length (from my eyeball). Needs to shoot it better than the 28% on 56 career threes in order to go from G-League prospect to NBA cup of coffee.
43. Herb Jones, Alabama, trending down, Tier7:
Weird to think this is a guy who I first saw making life difficult for Trae Young back in early 2018, but here we are and while Young’s star as ascended, Jones’s flattened out to the point that he’s probably underrated/underappreciated. He has size (6-7, 206) and length to hover around two stocks/game for his nearly-100 games at Alabama, but an inability to improve as a shooter was compounded by a wrist injury (and a shoulder as well, I believe) to completely kill off any shooting progress in his junior season (1-14 from three). He can pass and make semi-advanced reads, but despite a 59% clip at the rim, he doesn’t exhibit good touch there. With his size, decent athleticism, and ability to impact a wide range of scenarios on the defensive side, he should be better than he is. And if I’m being honest, even though his junior season was frustrating, his probability of getting to the pros isn’t any worse than Camren Wynter, Andrew Jones, or Donovan Williams.
44. Freddie Gillespie, Baylor, no change, Tier7:
Thick but undersized as a center (6-9, 245), Gillespie has a little jumper outside the paint and while he plays his ass off, he doesn’t consistently move well enough laterally to guard in space or have the strength to bang with big true fives. He’s kind of a poor man’s Xavier Tillman.
45. Dejon Jarreau, Houston, trending down, Tier7:
Jarreau has positional size to play as a lead guard at 6-5, but beyond the size and ability to make basic reads, he’s unreliable as a shooter with somewhat pedestrian athleticism. He can get to the line (~50% FTr over 91 career games), but made just 7 of 40 threes this past season.
TIER 8: Still awake?
46. Mark Vital, Baylor, no change, Tier8: no change from 2/28 post
47. Matthew Mayer, Baylor, trending down, Tier8: no change from 2/28 post
48. Tristan Enaruna, Kansas, trending down, Tier8: has size and length, doesn’t turn 19 until June, I get the potential, but at some point I need to see flashes of it and I haven’t.
49. Matt Mitchell, San Diego State, trending up, Tier8: beefy with a good jumper, likes to dribble.
50. Will Baker, Texas, trending up, Tier8: skilled big, can shoot, pass, and handle it a bit, but took a while to settle into frosh season. In perfect world, he probably would’ve redshirted this past year.
51. Clarence Nadolny, Texas Tech, trending down, Tier9: Looked better against Mega Bemax back in August 2019 than he did in Big12. Potential for mini-leap in sophomore season.
52. Erik Stevenson, Washington: transferring to University of Washington, part of chaos at Wichita State, good athlete who goes balls to the wall, has sound BBIQ, spent lot of time as a soph playing completely out of control.
53. Grant Sherfield, Nevada: transferring to University of Nevada
54. MaCio Teague, Baylor, trending down, Tier9
55. Mate Okros, Drexel, no change, Tier9: British/Hungarian kid; shot it well as a freshman (44-41-79), started all 33 games, low-impact (less than .5 stocks/game), but competent team defender.
56. Alex Lomax, Memphis, no change, Tier9: smart college PG and much-needed stabilizer on young Memphis team, but frequently cooked by bigger players at NCAA level.
57. Damion Baugh, Memphis, no change, Tier9: Smart and versatile, but refuses to shoot and when he does shoot, misses a lot: 44-29-56.
58. Jaime Echenique, Wichita State, trending up, Tier9
59. Russel Tchewa, Texas Tech, no change, Tier10: large, 20-year-old freshman from Cameroon, plays hard, sets a good and effective screen, currently has poor hands and should not dribble the ball.
60. David McCormack, Kansas, trending down, Tier10: stubborn sophomore big and former McDonald’s All-American, has legit size and some touch, but just insists on shooting and dribbling regardless of dis/advantage.
61. Matt Coleman, Texas, no change, Tier10
62. Isaiah Moss, Kansas, no change, Tier10: 23-year-old grad transfer for Kansas, game looks better than he produces.
63. Oton Jankovic, Vanderbilt, no change, Tier10
64. Malcolm Dandridge, Memphis, trending down, Tier10: Memphis had wanted to RS him, but with Wiseman gone, he played and wasn’t ready. Team-worst 38% turnover rate, but 64% FTr, 64 TS, and 76% at the rim. He can do some things, but like lot of Memphis players, has to polish, develop, and fine tune. Absent a dedicated film study, covid-19 is going to make development for these players harder than it would be in normal circumstances.
65. Justin Bean, Utah State, no change, Tier10: smart and savvy passer, somewhat of a rebounding savant who seems like he could’ve played in the 60s. Numbers exceed eye test.
66. Kyler Edwards, Texas Tech, trending down, Tier10: 40% from field, 32% from three, but those numbers drop down to the 20s when I watch.
Incompletes for DNPs: Gerald Lidell, Jericho Sims, Tyreek Smith
March 26, 2020Posted by on
It’s the afternoon on Friday, March 20th as I write this. I was supposed to be in Legoland in Kansas City with my three-year-old, Will. I always knew I’d be sneaking peaks at my phone and opening round NCAA Tournament games, trading the craziness of March Madness for the craziness of an overstimulated toddler. Instead, I’m looking backwards (as is usually the case in scouting, I suppose), watching games from February and early March before the Rony (coronavirus) descended on us like an unsensational Hollywood plot device, but alas, we have no Bill Pullman, no Will Smith, no Randy Quaid to fly his plane kamikaze style into the eye of the virus and perish so we can all go on with our bougie existences.
For this edition, we have 11 games and 70-some players spanning multiple continents, countries, and conferences. From Deni Avdija to Devon Dotson, Usman to Udoka, Maledon to McCullar, Merrill, Moretti, Mayer, Mitchell, Moss, McCormack and I could just make up some names and they may have the same odds of making the NBA as some of the players I’ve watched in the past few paranoid-filled weeks.
The games are below and a reminder to anyone reading one of my dumps for the first time: The only players ranked are players I watched in this the games listed below so no LaMelo Ball, Luka Garza, Obi Toppin, or Payton Pritchard. There are two exceptions to this rule which will be explicitly called out.
- 2/7: Maccabi Tel Aviv @ Fenerbache
- 2/22: Kansas @ Baylor
- 2/29: Texas @ Texas Tech
- 2/29: Drexel @ Charleston
- 3/2: Texas Tech @ Baylor
- 3/3: Vanderbilt @ Alabama
- 3/5: Wichita State @ Memphis
- 3/5: ASVEL @ Real Madrid
- 3/7: Kansas @ Texas Tech
- 3/7: Utah State vs San Diego State
- 3/8: Memphis @ Houston
- Usman Garuba, Real Madrid, trending up, N/A Tier:
Garuba was still just a young hooper of 17 when I watched this game from early March. He 18 a few days after, but he looks nothing like either a 17 or 18-year-old with solid square shoulders, a broad chest, and lanky arms. Appearances and stats tell of a young man mature beyond his years: in 21 games of his past three FIBA events against competitors his own age, Garuba is averaging 21 and 17 per-36 with a somewhat inconsistent stretch of shooting: TS’s 68, 58, and 48. In 36 games with the big boy club (Real Madrid) this season, those numbers drop precipitously – which isn’t a bad thing: he’s at 10 and 10 with nearly three stocks/game per-36 with a 62 TS, 17% 3Pr and 40% FTr. He’s done this with Real as a true 17-year-old, a kid playing beyond the depth and experience of probably 99% of all 17-year-old basketball players on the planet.
And while Garuba sits atop my ranking here despite not evening being eligible for the draft until 2021, I don’t quite see him as the same elite-level prospect some others may. For a battered Real, he started against ASVEL and brought what have become trademark traits: willing physicality as a screener with great wide-based screens, ample effort around the basket keeping balls alive against grown men that went for easy boards against his own age group, a high-ish and loose handle, inconsistent shooting, and grace to his movements and on-court navigation that are remarkable for his age. He has excellent straight line speed for a big and runs the court hard.
This is all well and good, but against the experienced and pressuring ASVEL, Garuba was often in a rush; pushing the ball at one speed and unsure or unable to come to a complete stop without shuffling his feet. On separate occasions, refs missed travels and with his high handle and upright gait while dribbling in the open court, he’s prone to have his dribble deflected.
His form on the catch-and-shoot remains a work in progress with an elbow that is over-exaggeratedly tucked in. You can almost see him trying to line up or aim his three-ball instead of just fluidly going through his motion. On 83 attempts across FIBA and Real, he’s 29% from deep.
With his physical ability, size, and movement, he can and will impact the game enough that being a below average three-point shooter won’t break his game, but for all the feel and effort he exhibits, there’s a polish lacking that’s lacking. But again, he just turned 18. If anyone on this list has time, it’s him.
- Deni Avdija, Maccabi Tel Aviv, no change, Tier1:
Avdija might not be as good or have as much upside as Garuba, but he’s probably more fun – depending on your definition of fun and tastes, etc. Avdija is 6-8 or 6-9 with a decent, if 19-year-old-ish build and guard skills galore.
For Israel’s FIBA tams (U20, U18, U16), he’s a do-everything self-creating forward with sprinklings of Luka Doncic and Toni Kukoc. With Maccabi Tel Aviv’s senior team, he plays off-ball, but is aggressive and decisive attacking off the touch. His feel, on greater display with Israel than Maccabi, is elevated. He reads the floor well, anticipates, and can pull passes out of his ass.
Against Fenerbache, he seemed to be playing with an elevated confidence, unbothered by the competition or setting. His quickness is average at best, but he plays at a measured pace, takes efficient angles (offensively and defensively), and has high level of anticipation.
Playing off ball and shooting just 33% on 119 attempts for the season (across FIBA and Maccabi, he’s at 33% on 404 attempts), he had room on a handful of catch-and-shoots. For the game, he was 1-3 on C&S3s and hit one off the dribble. He shoots with confidence and while his release looks like it might be lower than ideal, I imagine he’ll improve over time. Free throw shooting is a bit more of a question mark. He didn’t get to the line in Turkey, but is shooting 52% on the season (on 27% FTr) and is at 54% on nearly 300 attempts across all comps. It’s a poor number for a player who’s otherwise so skilled.
With Israel, he’s proven to be competent and relentless as a cutter and keeps an omnipresent pressure on the defense. He’s also comfortable playing with his back-to-the-basket and mixes in spin moves and up-and-unders to gain advantage. The level of skill pops in technical aspects of his game: post moves, ball handling, passing, and defensive position.
Defensively, he’s severely lacking strength but not will. Against Fenerbache, he wound up on 6-11, 240-pound Jan Vesely a few times. Vesely spent three seasons in the NBA and in addition to just being bigger than Avdija, is more physically mature and powerful. He treated Avdija like a rag doll, using super upper and lower body strength to gain position on post-ups and rebounds. In and of itself, this isn’t anything resembling a death knell for the young Israeli prospect. But it lines up with some challenges I saw from him in the FIBA U20s last summer where his sound defensive technique (verticality and defensive positioning specifically) was frequently muted by stronger or more explosive athletes.
Avdija will get stronger and I believe his shot mechanics are sound enough that he can become an average shooter. The lack of strength does concern me even in the long-term as I believe it limits his long-term defensive upside. If Avdija can be just average as a shooter and defender, his ability and upside as a creator are good enough to slot him in as an above average starter. But getting to average shooting and defending is still years in development.
- Kira Lewis Jr. Alabama, no change, Tier1: Nothing has fundamentally changed from when I wrote about him 10 days ago or however long it was, but enjoy some recorded video action:
- Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt, trending up, Tier2:
Nesmith is a bit of a fluky inclusion to this edition as his season ended back in January with a foot injury. I hadn’t written about him yet and saw more of his games last season than this one, but wanted to dig in a bit more and to be honest, this scouting dump needed a talent upgrade.
At 6-foot-6 with a 6-10 wingspan, Nesmith has ideal two-guard size. He was overshadowed as a freshman behind McDonald’s All-American teammates and current professionals, Darius Garland and Simi Shittu. Even last year, in a lot of ways he projected as a better fit at the pro level. His size, defense, and shooting were promising in his first season at Vanderbilt, but it was his injury-shortened second year that propelled his case forward.
He uses his size, strength, and length well on both ends, but it stands out more on the defensive side where he averaged 2.3 stocks/gm with steal and block percentages both over two. He’s shown strong defensive principles as a team defender who exhibits awareness of who he’s helping off of and where he’s helping to. His length is most valuable as a shot blocker in a variety of scenarios: as a help defender (clip below), on-ball defender, or in recovery. He showed improved strength in his sophomore year and should be able to switch up and guard smaller fours in the NBA although he has room to improve as a defensive rebounder; specifically his positioning and box out consistency. If he’s defending up, he’s likely to give up a decent amount of second chance opportunities.
Despite accumulating 500 minutes in just 14 games, Nesmith was a flamethrower, shooting an unsustainable 52% from three on 115 attempts. Per Synergy, he was on some Steph Curry-type shit, finishing in the 95th percentile or higher across spot ups (31% of the time), off screens (21%), hand-offs (8%), and in isolations (5%) while merely 90th percentile in transition (18%).
He’s most comfortable and effective shooting jumpers either off the catch or bounce and is already developing an ability to burst hard off off-ball screens, take the pass or handoff, stop on a dime, set his feet and elevate into his motion. It’s not the Korver, Klay, Redick-level of body control, but the foundations are there. I’m also not quite ready to put him into that realm of pure shooter off the strength of an incendiary half sophomore season.
The offensive effectiveness trickles off quite a bit after the shooting. Per barttorvik.com, he’s middle of the road at the rim while Synergy has him in the 60th percentile (good) on around-the-rim non-post ups. In my viewing, his athleticism and length on drives has been evident. He’s a long-strider who can get to the basket although I think he can be both more selective and effective attacking closeouts, but is somewhat limited by an average-to-below average handle, very little passing threat or awareness, and occasionally wild or off-balance shot attempts. There are possessions where he commits to the drive before he catches the ball and is dead set on getting off a shot. This is more maturity and game reps than anything else, but it’s an area of opportunity. With his frame, athleticism, and shot, attacking off the bounce has the potential to be a scary weapon. And while I see this as opportunity, it’s worth noting that he nearly doubled his free throw attempts from 2.5/gm to 4.5/gm while improving his FTr from 27.5% to 30.7%.
Because of the defensive impact and potential versatility combined with the shooting, I keep thinking of him as a bit smaller Dorell Wright although I believe Nesmith’s 14 games as a sophomore are probably better than any shooting stretch of Wright’s 549-game NBA career and while both athletic players, they’re completely different types of athletes. There are some low key hints of Klay Thompson as well, but this is more in the defense/lack of creation with slight nods to the shooting. Somewhere between Wright and Thompson is a yawning canyon of potential outcomes, but such is life: choose door #1 and find love, peace, and happiness. Door #2 is a highway to hell without the fun of an AC/DC accompaniment.