The current state of the mock draft is as much masturbatory as it exists for the voyeuristic. Mock drafting is as fun for mocker as the audience as we’ve witnessed with the NFL and the spawn of well-coiffed humans like Mel Kiper, but it’s also a participatory sport as the emergence of Fantasy Sports has revealed. For the 2014 NBA Draft, the mock laid out below covers the top-30 picks in the draft assuming no trades are made. Staying true to the tradition that mocks are a great way to pass the time, I brought along some old friends you don’t know and a newer friend you may know. The format is easy to follow and you can skip around or read straight through, but don’t miss the numerous gems sprinkled across this oddly fun, but probably not functional, mock draft.
The draftees were myself, Ian Levy of Hickory-High, Robert Hamill of the NBA Father/Son Two v. Two tourney, Brian Foster also of Father/Son, Andrew Maahs, and Rex Tredway. We drafted in a snake fashion, 1 thru 6, then the draftee with the 6th pick had 7 and so on.
With all that administration out of the way, let’s get on with the drafting which took place over the past couple weeks over email:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers, Andrew Wiggins as drafted by Ian Levy
The night after the Draft Lottery, Dan Gilbert was visited by three ghosts. The first was the ghost of Cavalier Past. A shade with the build and hairline of Karl Malone, the ghost of Cavalier Past told a story of the rich trappings of success being suddenly ripped away. The second and third were the ghosts of Cavalier Present. One was an overweight and overmatched disappointment, the other an overconfident and unaware star of debatable brightness. They told the story of missed opportunities and of struggles private and public. After they left, Gilbert sat in his luxiourous four-poster bed, shivering with fear, awating the ghost of Cavalier Future. But as dawn broke, the final ghost never appeared. The light stretching between his bedroom blinds brought renewed confidence, wiping away the terrifying memories of the night before. Gilbert grabbed his phone and accidentally called Chris Grant, “You again? Sorry, I meant to call David,” then hung up and rang David Griffin: “Forget about those questions we talked about yesterday. Get me that Canadian kid who can jump real high.”
2. Milwaukee Bucks, Jabari Parker as drafted by Kris Fenrich
On the eve of the 2014 Mock Draft, no ghosts visited the new owners of the Milwaukee Bucks, just a call from GM John Hammond who, after deep thought, reflection, and a consultation with his former employer and mentor … Joe Dumars … had arrived at his 1-2 scenario. Hammond didn’t hide his disappointment that the team’s #1 option was already off the board. “We needed Wiggins!” he shrieked out loud while pacing in the team’s war room. The rest of the assorted Bucks employees looked at each other in awkward embarrassment and someone suppressed a laugh. Hammond stopped cold, realized he was making an ass of himself and recounted the sobering conversation he’d had with Dumars the night before where Joe had reeled off all the truths of Joel Embiid’s franchise-lifting ceiling: athletic fluidity, rebounding and shot blocking, underrated, but rapidly developing offensive arsenal and all against the backdrop of that troubled Larry Sanders. With darkened memories of Darko Milicic dancing a fiendish jig in his mind, Hammond made the call: Jabari Parker.
3. Philadelphia 76ers, Joel Embiid as drafted by Andrew Maahs
Raw big man, check. High-upside, check. Injury red flag, check. Falling in the draft, check.
With Joel Embiid falling to the Sixers, GM Sam Hinkie asks, “HAVEN’T WE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE?” And despite conventional wisdom the Sixers select another high-upside big man with injury concerns in Joel Embiid. But unlike last year’s selection, Noel, Embiid is in act one, scene four of a basketball career that some are comparing to a young Akeem Olajuwon, yes that Hakeem Olajuwon. Critics will question whether the two big men can share the same stage, questions that won’t be answered in year one as Hinkie and Co. will cautiously rest both players periodically, embracing year two of “Operation Tank.” With the #10 pick and five second-round picks, the Sixers brass will have endless opportunities to surround the young nucleus, of Michael Carter Williams, Noel and Embiid, with the right pieces. One thing is clear, Embiid is the Godfather II to Noel’s Godfather, and this time the sequel is better, unbelievably better.
4. Orlando Magic, Marcus Smart as drafted by Brian Foster
With the Otis Smith roster purge nearly completed (Jameer Nelson is the lone holdover), young gun GM Rob Hennigan is finally ready for the Orlando Magic to start making progress towards the playoffs in a watered down Eastern Conference. With no surprises in the first 3 picks, the Magic find themselves picking from a handful of players they expected to be available. It’s no secret that Orlando needs a PG badly to make this young core of players flourish going forward. Hennigan’s mentor and good friend, Sam Presti, found himself in a similar situation 6 years ago in the 2008 draft. There was an emotional, fiery guard with disruptive defensive ability and great size who no one knew whether or not he would be a true point guard. Presti was heckled by some draft pundits for taking the leap with Russell Westbrook. I’d say Westbrook turned out ok, so Hennigan has no problems pulling the trigger here . “Irrational shot selection and sketchy shooting be damned, I’m going with my gut!!” shouts Hennigan from the Magic war room.
5. Utah Jazz, Dante Exum as drafted by Robert Hamill
A somewhat surprising pick by Orlando at #4 forced Utah to reevaluate its choice. Prevailing thought had Orlando taking Dante Exum, leaving GM Kevin O’Connor sure the player he wanted was top-rated PF, Juius Randle. Of the remaining players atop Utah’s board, Randle was the proven choice – that is to say he proven in a present-day NBA draft. Also under consideration, Noah Vonleh blew minds at the combine. But the word “raw” gets thrown around with him, and raw doesn’t always become filet mignon when it’s fully cooked. O’Connor also had concerns about his build. Narrow shoulders aren’t a great asset around the basket. And finally, Exum, the wildcard from down under. Wildcards are often destined for the same fate as raw players. To a gambler, a wildcard has a malleable future, capable of being shaped to fit your scenario. For O’Connor, the big question was, can he play some SG? At 6’6″ with long arms and top-10 times in all the combine speed drills, the answer appears to be yes. O’Connor may not fancy himself a gambler, but today he is. Exum’s skills should help Gordon Hayward create from the wing, and let Trey Burke play to his strength by getting open 3s. The Jazz select Dante Exum. Now, who’s going to coach this group?
6. Boston Celtics, Julius Randle as drafted by Rex Tredway
The Sports Illustrated cover solidified the comparison. A Midwestern farm-boy from a mid-major who can stroke the three, as soon as Dougy McBuckets grows a stache he and Larry are basically the same guy right? I’m sure there’s a sizable portion of Celtic’s nation who thinks so. So the pick is obvious. With the sixth pick in the 2014 draft the Boston Celtics select: Julius Randle.
Randle is the easy selection here for Ainge and Stevens. He was a consensus top three pick before the season and has a body that’s NBA ready. He showed us that he can dominate the boards during Kentucky’s tourney run, and that talent fills a need in Boston immediately.
7. Los Angeles Lakers, Noah Vonleh as drafted by Rex Tredway
The D-League Lakers were an absolute mess this year. At this point in the off-season there still seem to be more questions than answers. Who’s going to be the Head Coach? How much gas will Kobe have in the tank when he comes back? Is Gasol out the door now or later? Not even a call to Miss Cleo can get you all of those answers. Question marks aside, I see the Lakers taking Noah Vonleh in this spot. He’s not the combine freak that Aaron Gordon is, but he’ll be a better rebounder in year one and more importantly he has the ability to hit the mid-range jumper on a pick-and-pop.
8. Sacramento Kings, Zach LaVine as drafted by Robert Hamill
If the Kings are indeed willing to trade for Kevin Love without any assurance he will sign an extension, they should take the most gifted player available and not give consideration to the current roster. A team that has tried stockpiling assets, the Kings are what we’ve come expect from an organization that has employed 6 coaches over the past 8 seasons. Aside from DeMarcus Cousins, all current Kings are expendable. At #8, the player that will either excite fans at Sleep Train Arena, or get the attention of the Love-selling T’Wolves, is UCLA freshman SG Zach LaVine. LaVine is compared favorably (and unfavorably) to Russ Westbrook. Fearless in transition; explosive athleticism; questionable judgment. But he’s different too. Legit SG size; effortless range from deep with a smooth, balanced release; not much of a creator for others. Like Westbrook he’s a late bloomer – a kid that wasn’t even in the top-50 of any recruiting service 2 years ago. He looks like a young guy who is still figuring out how to use all of his genetic gifts. The Kings now set their sights on Kevin Love and dream of an outcome that delivers Love while holding onto LaVine … because they know there’s a decent chance he becomes one of the top three players in this draft.
9. Charlotte Hornets, James Young as drafted by Brian Foster
Charlotte retired the Bobcats name respectably with a trip to the playoffs in their final season before becoming the Hornets once more. In a rare stroke of luck for the Michael Jordan Front Office Circus, the Hornets picked up the Pistons lottery pick that was only top-8 protected as the result of a Corey Maggette for Ben Gordon swap two years ago (you heard right, Joe Dumars somehow made the Ben Gordon signing even worse by giving away the 9th pick in this year’s draft just to dump his salary). With that being said, let’s go into the mind of Michael Jordan for this pick to see how his previous personnel blunders influence the Hornets for the 2014 draft: Rich Cho: “Doug McDermott?” MJ: “Oh no, I’m not falling for the high scoring, sweet shooting white guy again. Fuck. That.” Cho: “Aaron Gordon?” MJ: “Hell no, he reminds me of that bitch ass Tyrus Thomas who just runs and jumps around with no real basketball skills.” Cho: “Gary Harris?” MJ: “Too little, I would post him up after shoot arounds all day. Ask Gerald. No, for real, get his ass on speaker phone.” Cho: “…” MJ: “Fine, don’t call him. Who’s that guy that kid from Kentucky that dunked on the African dude in the NCAA title game?” Cho: “I give up…Rod (Higgins), call the pick in already.”
10. Philadelphia 76ers, Gary Harris as drafted by Andrew Maahs
Measuring in at a meager 6’2.5″ without shoes, SG Gary Harris found himself singing “I wish I was taller,” after the NBA combine concluded on May 15th. Despite his disappointing measurements, the Sixers pulled out the “rabbit in a hat with a bat” and drafted the combo guard. Arguably one of the best on ball defenders in the draft, Harris provides the Sixers another defensive asset for their young roster. The length of Michael Carter Williams will help neutralize Harris’ lack of size on the defensive end, and his ability to play both guard spots gives the Sixers some versatility, depth and playmaking they desperately need.
11. Denver Nuggets, Aaron Gordon as drafted by Kris Fenrich
Sometimes choice can be overwhelming and when you’re a mediocre team with needs across the board, having too many options can be like getting lost in the labyrinthine menu at Cheesecake Factory. Do I want the herb crusted filet of salmon (Aaron Gordon) or the grilled shrimp and bacon club (Dario Saric) or maybe the buffalo blasts (Nik Stauskas)? My God, man, why are we talking about Cheesecake Factory’s oversaturated fatty menu when my cholesterol is already too high and there’s plenty of leafy green options (Doug McDermott) out there just waiting to be devoured and deliver me the sustenance necessary to make strong, clear headed decisions? Screw the salad, we’re already here and what’s life if it’s not indulging in what you really want instead of what you need? Redundancy be damned, potential Shawn Marion clone (minus cockeyed jumper and insecurities) Aaron Gordon is the choice. Now if you don’t mind, I have platter of salmon and mashed potatoes drowning in a lake of lemon butter waiting for me.
12. Orlando Magic, Nik Stauskas as drafted by Ian Levy
With this pick the Orlando Magic have turned their back court into Voltron. Stauskas, Smart, Oladipo, Afflalo, E’Twaun Moore (in a pinch) can assemble themselves into a super robot, with each limb capable of spacing the floor, running a pick-and-roll, and taking a tough defensive assignment. Now they just have to figure out who gets to hold the giant sword.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves, Doug McDermott as drafted by Ian Levy
Timberwolves gonna Timberwolf.
14. Phoenix Suns, Dario Saric as drafted by Kris Fenrich
With three picks in the first round and a 48-win team that’s celebrating the departure of Emeka Okafor and his nearly $15-million deal, the Suns are the envy of the lottery. Maybe not, but as such, they’re in a good mood and pleased to take 6’10” Croatian point forward/future Toni Kukoc/slender Boris Diaw, whom they call Dario Saric. While preferring Saric to join ASAP, the Suns are willing to wait until 2015 if that’s what it takes. Also, there’s hope in the front office that his splotchy mustache thing will have either filled in or fallen out by then.
15. Atlanta Hawks, Rodney Hood as drafted by Andrew Maahs
When DeMarre Carroll and D-League vet, Cartier Martin are the only true Small Forwards on your roster you could use more than little help at that position. Rodney Hood fills an immediate need and fits well into the 3-point happy Hawks offensive system. Atlanta will be heavily chasing restricted free agent Gordon Hayward this offseason and Hood should be a decent consolation prize should they fail to land Hayward.
16. Chicago Bulls, Kyle Anderson as drafted by Brian Foster
With the uncertainty of Derrick Rose‘s knees and the departure of Luol Deng, the Bulls weaknesses were on full display in the playoffs against a young Wizards team. They lacked depth on the wings, and didn’t have anyone who can create for others like Rose. The Bulls address both needs with one player: Point forward, Kyle Anderson, out of UCLA.
17. Boston Celtics, Elfrid Payton as drafted by Robert Hamill
Only one piece of the contending Celtics teams remains. Danny Ainge has long desired to trade Rajon Rondo, and very well may have last year had the moody PG not been rehabbing a torn ACL. In the last year of his deal, and still considered a top PG, a market for Rondo certainly exists. Or perhaps they ride out the last year of Rondo and do a sign and trade in the summer of ’15. Regardless, the time to move on is approaching. Elfrid Payton brings some Rondo-like ability to the table – speed and quickness, vision, energetic defense (his 2.6 spg is tops amongst this draft class). Also like Rondo, his shot is disjointed and ineffective. At 6’4 he’s tall, young (played his freshman season at 17), eager to improve, and he’s the Celtics pick at #17.
18. Phoenix Suns, TJ Warren as drafted by Rex Tredway and rationalized by Kris Fenrich
Sure, the Suns might crave shooting threes like the NCAA craves hypocrisy, but coach Jeff Hornacek’s no dummy and wants to expand his offensive portfolio with the theme of diversification. And no one in this draft diversifies a three-heavy offense like NC State small forward, TJ Warren. I have no clue how or where Warren learned to play basketball, but with an array of two-point moves that already qualifies as mature, one wonders if he spent his childhood studying the likes of Alex English, Adrian Dantley, Kiki Vandeweghe, Mark Aguirre, Rolando Blackman, Kelly Tripucka, Bernard King …. you get the picture, Warren’s a throwback to the days before the three ball was crowned king and sat on a throne 23’9″ from the hoop. But God help us if the young man ever develops that part of his game.
19. Chicago Bulls, PJ Hairston as drafted by Rex Tredway and rationalized by Kris Fenrich
Chicago’s identity is crafted by two men: Sheriff Tom Thibodeau and Deputy Joakim Noah. With those two steel-willed men guiding the franchise, Thibs convinces the front office that the red flags (and wailing sirens and weed/gun/speeding infractions) that accompany wing-player PJ Hairston aren’t enough to deter the Bulls from snagging the big-bodied UNC reject. In Hairston, Thibs sees a bearded ball of unformed clay ready to be sculpted into a tooth and nail defender with a jumper good enough to catch feeds from Noah and a healthy Derrick Rose.
20. Toronto Raptors, Tyler Ennis as drafted by Robert Hamill
20 years ago the Raptors probably would have avoided taking a Canadian kid. The expectations on a local product for the new franchise could have been heavy. But it’s 2014 and the Raptors are just another franchise trying for consecutive playoff berths. With Kyle Lowry‘s future at the club up in the air, the Raptors need to add a PG. Masai Ujiri didn’t expect Ennis to be here at #20, and when he was, the call was easy. Will Ennis be a starting caliber PG for a perennial playoff team? Who knows – it’s hard to ever know for sure. But he’s the obvious choice for Toronto. He comes from a winning culture and has shown the ability to play well in big moments.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder, Adreian Payne as drafted by Brian Foster
Fresh off of their Western Conference Finals loss to the Spurs, GM Sam Presti realizes that it’s time to recruit some reinforcements on the front line. The injury to Serge Ibaka in the playoffs magnified the Thunder’s lack of front court depth. Steven Adams is a good, young prospect, but after that it gets ugly in a hurry. Nick Collison is near the end of the road of his NBA career, and I wouldn’t pick Kendrick Perkins to play on my team in a pickup game at the Y. Watching Kevin Durant get pushed around filling in at the 4 made this decision easy for Presti. Adreian Payne out of Michigan State is his man. Payne checks in at 6’10”, 240 with a Stretch Armstrong-like 7-4 wingspan. His ability to mix it up inside and stretch the floor with range out to 3 will definitely be a welcome addition to this young OKC core.
22. Memphis Grizzlies, Cleanthony Early as drafted by Andrew Maahs
The small forward position of the Grizzlies is a collection of has beens and never have beens. With Tayshaun Prince washed up and Mike Miller a situational player, the Grizzlies are in desperate need of a playmaker at that position. After a strong performance at the combine and in the NCAA tournament, against Kentucky, the 23 year-old, Cleanthony Early is ready to make the leap from the mid-major level to the NBA. If he manages to beat owner Robert Pera in his weekly one-on-one games, Early may find himself in Dave Joerger’s starting lineup. That’s if Joerger still coaching this team by the end of the week.
23. Utah Jazz, KJ Daniels as drafted by Kris Fenrich
While some in the organization believe the Jazz should’ve drafted another white hope in Doug McDermott at #5, good sense and a pro-Australian-faction won out. But by taking Exum at #5 and losing a handful of aging, calcifying players to free agency, the Jazz are getting younger while their current crop of kids (Hayward, Kanter, Favors) gain crucial on the job experience. A couple of Euro imports may be the best players available, but the Jazz need help now and that means taking the gaudy athleticism of Clemson’s, K.J. McDaniels. At 6’6”, Daniels uses his quick leaping ability to be a plus rebounder and shot blocker for his position. Jazz marketers are already planning campaigns with working titles as “McDaniels’ Den of Dazzling Dunks” or “KJ: More Athletic than RJ and less arthritic than Marvin.”
24. Charlotte Hornets, Glenn Robinson III as drafted by Ian Levy
The New Orleans Hornets are in desperate need of some spacing from the small forward position and Robinson is just what the doctor ordered. Long and athletic, oh, the marvelous, glorious basketball DNA. Also, they can now give up on Austin Rivers and not keep their Nepotism Rating high. #AdvancedStats
25. Houston Rockets, Mitch “Money” McGary as drafted by Ian Levy
The Rockets are still missing something. You can call it chutzpah, intensity, aggression, passion, physicality, giving a flying fuck, reckless abandon, the willingness to mix it up, cojones, muscles for miles. Whatever your chosen euphemism, McGary has it and the Rockets don’t. Now they can trade Asik, plug McGary in for 25 minutes a night as Dwight Howard‘s back slowly disintegrates and let the man go get frothy.
26. Miami Heat, Shabazz Napier as drafted by Kris Fenrich
Let’s be real, Mario Chalmers is exhausted from years of being the Miami whipping boy. Between the Heat cap jockeying and the availability of Napier, it’s time for Mario to take his title talents elsewhere and for Shabazz to sidle into the Norris Cole role (sans high top) as Cole becomes a not-so-annoying Chalmers. At the end of the day, we’re all just filling someone else’s shoes.
27. Phoenix Suns, Kristaps Porzingis as drafted by Andrew Maahs
After selecting Dario Saric, with the #14 pick, the Suns double dip and select another skilled 7-footer in Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis is a few years away from being an NBA caliber player, as was evident by his 6.7 PPG and 2.7 RBG in Spain’s ACB League. With three first round picks, the Suns are counting on one of their European selections to stay overseas, giving them roster felxibilty for free agents and/or Kevin Love.
28. Los Angeles Clippers, Jerami Grant as drafted by Brian Foster
Since the beginning of the Chris Paul Era in Clipperland, they’ve had a revolving door of over the hill and journeymen small forwards (Ryan Gomes, Caron Butler, Matt Barnes, Jared Dudley, Grant Hill). With the Sterling saga in the rear view mirror, the Clippers are looking to turn the page by drafting some young legs to inject some energy into this mostly veteran core. In comes Jerami Grant from Syracuse. Grant is a slasher with protypical SF size (6-8 215) that likes to use his exceptional athleticism to get to the rim and put pressure on the defense. You can check out the kid’s dunk highlights on YouTube to get an idea of how well Grant will fit in with his new team. Welcome to Lob City.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder, Clint Capela as drafted by Robert Hamill
Unless you agree with Scott Brooks‘ comments following Game 6 of the WCF, OKC finds itself coming up short of expectations for the 2nd straight year (injuries or not). While the team needs to retool, and maybe hire a new coach, the pick at #29 doesn’t exactly lend itself to that effort. Sam Presti should regret giving Kendrick Perkins the deal he did, and it seems highly unlikely the scary big man will return once it expires in 2015. Clint Capela makes a great draft-and-stash pick and seems like a move Presti’s mentors in San Antonio would make. He’s only 20 and needs a lot of seasoning, but he’s big, strong and could be a nice piece alongside Serge Ibaka in a couple years.
30. San Antonio Spurs, CJ Wilcox as drafted by Kris Fenrich
Coach Gregg Popovich might claim to hate the three, but he knows where his bread’s buttered and there aren’t many better shooters in this draft than 23-year-old CJ Wilcox from UW. At 23 and having played behind bigger, brighter names and talents, Wilcox is humble and hungry. He brings a quick release and above average athleticism to a team that can never go deep enough. At training camp, his targets will be set on the minutes of Marco Bellinelli and his creepy neck beard.
A lot of the analysis here makes no sense. Multiple picks are being made at positions of no need with better talent on the board (Jeremi Grant to Clippers, Stauskus to Orlando, Payton to the Celtics, Ennis to the Raptors, Mcgary to the Rockets, Shabazz to the Heat). Why would the Clippers take Jeremi Grant when they have a need at Center and names like Capela and Nurkic would be available (even 2nd rounders like Artem Klimenko and Nikola Jokic would make more sense). Orlando will have already drafted a Guard at #4 and with the impending departure of Afflalo why not get a SF? Mcgary is unlikey to go in the 1st round and Shabazz’s style of play isn’t compatible with the Heat’s system(they don’t want a ball dominant PG). Wouldn’t the Heat be better off taking Jordan Adams or Dinwiddie…or taking a flier on one of the aforementioned foreign Centers?
Hey Rob Stark,
Thanks much for reading.
I can only speak for my pick that you called out (Shabazz to Miami) and my rationale was that Chalmers is likely to price himself out of Miami after this season and Napier would make a strong addition in terms of both talent and depth and while Shabazz has proven best dominating the ball, I’d counter that he appears to be mature enough to adapt his game. I’m a big Dinwiddie fan and would love to see him as a combo guard in Miami, but not sure I see him as a 1st rounder at this point or a better prospect or fit for Miami.
As for the other picks, I think in each case, the mocker at least explained how/why he was making the pick. I didn’t agree with all of their rationalizations anymore than I agree with actual NBA draft picks or your suggestions — particularly regarding the foreign bigs.
All that being said, thanks for taking the time to provide a thoughtful comment.
Hey Rob, Like Fendo said, thanks for reading. I’ll speak to my two picks you called out – Ennis and Payton – though I think I made my similar justifications for each pick pretty clear.
In Toronto Kyle Lowry is about to hit the UFA market as by far the top PG. He’ll demand a lot more than the $6 million he got this year and rightfully so with the season he had. Not knowing whether the Raptors intend to pony up what it’s going to take to keep him (and in the interest of depth regardless) Ennis felt like the right choice. Vasquez is a RFA and though I would expect Toronto to match, one can’t be sure. If I’m Masai, I don’t want to find myself in a terrible position at PG come training camp with fewer than 2 on the roster or have to settle in the FA market.
On Boston’s selection of Payton, I firmly believe Rondo gets moved this year or they do a sign and trade next summer. Either way, I don’t expect him back there for the long term. But I’ll definitely acknowledge that this is nothing but speculation on my part (just like all mock drafts). They appear to be rebuilding and Rondo’s expiring deal is a nice shiny object to dangle in front of teams around the trade deadline. Even with Rondo on the roster, they still could use another PG – Phil Pressey shouldn’t be considered a reliable backup (even though I liked him a lot at Mizzou).
For me, picking where Boston and Toronto are is less about immediate need (early-mid lottery) or best player available (contenders). These picks were made with the longer view in mind and in hopes that they can be major contributors in the years to come.
I must say, I’m pleased to see some well thought out responses. Ultimately a lot of what we talk about when evaluating drafts is conjecture. We aren’t usually 100% confident any player will turn out or what each player’s significance to a team might be. My own rationale with regards to this draft is that the PG prospects (outside of the combo guards at the top) are fairly weak and there are better upside projects that teams could take a flier on. That being said I like Ennis and Payton but I just don’t wanna reach for them because I don’t think they could ever be suitable facsimiles of Lowry or Rondo. On the other hand, the foreign big men are less skilled but have easily translatable NBA roles and can be seasoned overseas. It also doesn’t hurt that foreign players tend to produce greater NBA results by the metrics than NCAA guys.
@fendo. Chalmers very well may have run his course in Miami, BUT it’s highly unlikely to me that a championship caliber team would be willing to put Shabazz in their program, season him ,and play him significant minutes. PG is the most or 2nd most talent rich position in the league. Isn’t it more plausible that if they lose Chalmers they would pick up a more established PG from FA (Hinrich, Augustin, Blake, etc) who they could plug and play?
@Rob In the case of Toronto/Masai, Lowry is essentially their best asset. I find it hard to believe they let him go without a decent return (even though they tried shopping him for Shumpert). He’s proven to be a top 7 PG in the league and for him to leave without them getting anything in return doesn’t make much sense. It’s probably priority that they re-sign him, even if they end up moving him by the next trade deadline. If somehow they lost him, I guess Ennis is the only option available that would make sense. He seems to be a game manager with the ability to make the right passes and play solid enough defense for Casey to be happy. I’ve come around to your point.
I think Payton has the make-up of the sort of player that you don’t reach for. He has the length and is very athletic, but essentially he is a poor man’s Rondo. The Celts should be drafting best on board or highest upside. Even if they trade Rondo the trade can only go one of two ways. A: Trading Rondo for future assets (young guys or draft picks) which is tantamount to a short term tanking plot. B. Trading Rondo for an equal or greater value in the present (Kevin Love or a group of above average guys). In both cases I think Payton is too raw to draft but especially in the latter case. Furthermore, Payton isn’t really Brad Steven’s type of PG based on what I saw from him at Butler. He’d prefer a guy who could make all the passes with ease and space the floor out to the three point line.
All in all, I’m fairly excited for this draft. Keep up the analysis.