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Just messing around, getting triple doubles
June 23, 2016Posted by on
This is part two of a three-part series on the NBA draft. Part one can be found here.
Skal Labissiere – 7’0”, 216lbs, 20-years-old, Bug
Labissiere came in with a lot of hype as one of the prized jewels in another star-studded Kentucky recruiting class. Coming into the season, Skal was projected as a top-3 pick for the 2016 draft, but things didn’t quite work out as planned for the Haitian-born big man. The tumultuous season that ensued leaves us where we are at now, with Skal clinging on to be in the top-10 discussion of this year’s draft. When you watch his highlights, you see a very athletic 7-footer that has a beautiful shooting motion and a nice jump hook that he can finish with either hand. But, when you watched his college games against other top teams, he is barely noticeable on the floor. He probably isn’t ready to contribute right away for an NBA team, but recent workouts have the scouts raving about his skill set and upside. Coach Cal didn’t use a player correctly to maximize their strengths? Where have we heard that before (Karl Anthony-Towns)? Based on his projected draft range of 11-15, I think he would be a great fit for the rebuilding Chicago Bulls. Chicago is most likely going to lose both Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah this offseason, so the center position is going to be a position of need for them this offseason. The Bulls just traded hometown hero Derrick Rose to the Knicks, and the team is looking to get younger and more athletic. Skal would give them a developmental player that can grow while the recently acquired Robin Lopez handles the starting duties for the next year or two.
Floor: Anthony Randolph
Ceiling: LaMarcus Aldridge
Jaylen Brown – 6’7”, 222lbs, 19-years-old, Fendo
Jaylen Brown likes chess and envisions himself as a king and others as pawns. This is just one of the concerns that add complexity to the 6’7” Cal-product with great googly athleticism offset by occasional Hardenistic defensive lapses. Brown slots into that second tier made up of picks 3-8 which has devolved into an unpredictable sellers’ market. Physically, he’s ready. I have no doubt he could step into a Pro-Am and hold his own with NBA players, but like Lamar Odom said of Javale McGee, “It’s called basketball, not run and jump.” Which isn’t to compare Brown to McGee, but to accentuate his hyper physical skills against still-developing game skills. Brown has a 7’0” wingspan, going north-to-south he picks up a hell of a head of steam and looks to be able to finish with both hands. Even at a young age, he’s figured out how to effectively utilize that athleticism as he attempted over 9 FTAs/40 minutes which was the second best in DraftExpress’s top-100. On the opportunity side, his handle and ability to finish in traffic are suspect though these should improve significantly with experience and pro tutelage. Dimensionally and athletically he reminds me of Shawn Marion, but Marion was uncanny defensively and on the glass; areas of current weakness for Brown. It’s not that he can be Marion or even should be, but the comparison is instructive as a way to see how those abilities can be tapped – particularly in the current NBA where defensive versatility has become a necessity. And while he’s long, he doesn’t play big which makes me wonder just how well he’ll be able to defend big, long players or how well he’ll hit the glass. There’s a hell of a player in here somewhere and he should have a high floor based on athleticism alone, but another guy who was 6’7” and 220-some-odd-pounds was a guy by the name of Kedrick Brown. He played on three teams in four years and was finished in the NBA by 23 after Boston picked him 13th overall in the 2001 draft. Somewhere between Marion and Kedrick, maybe we’ll find Jaylen.
Dejounte Murray – 6’5”, 170lbs, 19-years-old, Fendo
When we started this project a couple weeks ago, Murray was pegged as high 10 and as low as 35. I spent this past winter watching his confidence and the confidence of his teammates in him rise game-over-game. He’s a long-limbed 6’5” with a slashing and attacking ability that feels like it falls from the same tree as fellow Seattleite Jamal Crawford. He’s not ridiculously quick, fast or strong, but none of that limits him from getting into the lane or getting his shot off. He attempted 18 free throws in a game against Arizona State and averaged over 7 FTAs/game in March. When he’s not getting hacked, DX cites Synergy’s data to highlight that Murray made more floaters than any other prospect in this year’s draft. He’s the kind of player you’ll watch and ask how in the hell did he just do what he did. There’s a craftiness to his game that exceeds his 19 years. Where he excels at creating his own looks, he was maybe reckless or out-of-control in his playmaking ability as he averaged over three turnovers/game. That’s not to say he can’t pass, but he was thrust into being UW’s primary playmaker and experienced the ups (4+ assists) and downs (3+ TOs) that came with it. He’s not a great shooter (48% TS, 29% from 3) and despite averaging nearly two steals/game, he’s more of an opportunistic defender than a lock-down guy. Despite being four inches shorter and lacking the physical gifts UW teammate Marquese Chriss possesses, Murray out-rebounded his teammate and is one just four freshman since the 1993-94 season to average 16-points, 6-rebounds, and 4-assists-per-game which speaks to his significant versatility and ability to impact the game in multiple ways. He’s not quite Jamal Crawford; doesn’t shoot or handle the ball quite as well, but he has the tools to rebound and defend in ways Crawford never could, it’s just a matter of bending his game that way. He’s probably closer to Michael Carter-Williams in that he can rebound well for his position and is comfortable running a team offensively, but significantly lacking MCW’s defensive commitment. Ideally he’d land in a spot with a well-established coach and front office not facing a “win now” mandate. In the 13-18 range, that looks like Denver and Detroit with the Pistons being a better fit as some of Murray’s skills are redundant alongside Mudiay though SVG prefers veterans off the bench.
Deyonta Davis – 6’10”, 230lbs, 19-years-old, Bug
Deyonta is the rare one-and-done player that came into his freshman season with very little hype as a potential 2016 draft pick. Davis was expected to come in and pay his dues under legendary coach Tom Izzo at Michigan State, while gradually earning a bigger role on the team over 2-3 years. He only averaged 18mpg his freshman season with averages of 7.5 ppg and 5.5 rpg, so the stats don’t jump out off the page by any means. But, the thing that has the scouts intrigued with Davis is his size and defensive ability. He’s equipped with a sturdy frame at 6’10”, 240. As a Spartan he averaged just under two blocks a game (1.8 bpg) in limited minutes, and shows the traits of a plus rebounder by getting off of the floor quickly on 2nd and 3rd jumps to go get the ball. Scouts were pleasantly surprised by the development of his jumper in workouts. He didn’t get an opportunity to do anything outside of the paint at Michigan State, so adding a consistent mid-range shot to his game could make him a versatile player that teams covet in today’s NBA. Davis has the physical tools to play the 4 or 5 spots, and the ability to take on a guard during a switch in pick and roll situations; another plus in the league right now. Davis’ draft slot will most likely be in the 9-17 range along with a cluster of other high-upside big men. He could be a fit in Toronto if the Raptors feel like the Biyombo bidding war is going to be too rich for their blood during free agency. Phoenix at 13 is another possible destination, but it depends on what they do with their first pick at #4. Davis could help Phoenix replenish some of the versatility that they lost by moving on from the Morris twins.
Floor: Ed Davis
Ceiling: Tristan Thompson/Hasaan Whiteside hybrid
Dragan Bender – 7’1”, 225lbs, 18-years-old, Maahs
After riding the bench for Maccabi Tel Aviv in Israel (13 MPG, 4.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG) it’s tough to get a true analysis on the 18-year-old Croatian prospect. Like the Cheick Diallo’s of the draft, scouts are projecting what type of player Bender could become with little to no game action. In the limited time Bender was on the floor, he showed the ability to chase shooters and switch ball screens. That alone doesn’t sound like much but when you add in his height (7’1″), an improved shooting ability (37.5% 3PT) and a high basketball IQ, you’re left with a very intriguing stretch 4 for today’s NBA. While an average-to-below-average athlete, Bender plays with a fluidity that is rare for a player his size. The size combined with a willingness to pass has some comparing Bender to his boyhood idol Toni Kukoc. Many will inevitably compare Bender to Kristaps Porzingis — Bender comes over as youngest player in the draft who will need a few years to add strength to his 225 pound frame and further develop his game, before any “Zinger” comparisons can be made. He’s probably 2-3 years away from making meaningful contributions to an NBA team. Teams like Pelicans, Suns, Kings and Bucks would be ideal fits as Bender could immediately take on a lesser bench role. If he climbs up to #3, it’s reasonable to think that Bender could contribute to Boston in a similar role as Jonas Jerebko or Kelly Olynyk.
Floor: a mobile Andrea Bargnani
Ceiling: Detlef Schrempf / Toni Kukoc hybrid
Cheick Diallo – 6’9”, 220lbs, 19-years-old, Maahs
Averaging 3.0 PTS, 2.5 REB and playing 7.5 minutes per game is not what you’d typically expect for a player being projected in the middle to late first round of the NBA draft. But thanks to the good ol’ National Collegiate Athletic Association, Cheick Diallo missed the first 5 games at Kansas while the organization investigated his academic eligibility. With National Championship aspirations and a frontcourt full of upperclassman, Bill Self didn’t have the patience to let Diallo endure the necessary growing pains to develop throughout the year. Measuring in at 6’9″ with a 7’5″ wingspan, Diallo was impressive at the combine during the five-on-five session, scoring 18 points with 4 rebounds and 4 blocks. With a similar performance at the 2015 Nike Hoops Summit and MVP of the McDonald’s All-American game, GM’s still remain high on the athletic forward. Raw and offensively limited at this stage, it will take a few years for Diallo to develop any resemblance of a post-game. As a high-energy guy, he should be able to contribute on the defensive end, but his offensive limitations will determine the length and success of his career. Only 19, Diallo will be a project for whatever team selects him on draft night. Projected anywhere from 15-25, his ideal landing spot would be with a team like Boston or Detroit, where he could learn offensive and defensive schemes — something that prevented him from seeing significant time at Kansas.
Floor: Tyrus Thomas
Jakob Poeltl – 7’1”, 242lbs, 20-years-old, Fendo
I watched Poeltl pummel UW twice this season (29-10-4 then 23-6) then watched Domantas Sabonis and Gonzaga destroy Poeltl in the NCAA Tournament. I thought I knew what to expect and was high on the 7’1” Austrian, but the more film I see, the more concerned I am about his lack of explosiveness and ability to finish against pro centers. For a player his size, he runs the floor well with good balance and coordination. He’s decently mobile and his footwork is OK. With his size and comparable length, it’s easy to envision him learning the nuance of the NBA’s verticality rules and being an average-to-above-average rim protector. What kept jumping out to me was his complete lack of leaping power; particularly on the offensive end where he prefers little scoop shots or hooks and somehow plays below the rim. Even at 7’1”, he’s not taking it to the basket with any aggressiveness. The only time he seems comfortable attacking the rim is when he’s able to get a full head of steam and that won’t happen much at the pro level. For post players lacking elite length or explosion, a full arsenal of post moves is the best fallback, but in the clips I’ve seen and analysis I’ve read, he’s lacking here as well. He’s a competent passer and can pick out cutters, but the rest of his offensive game leaves me wanting more. In mocks he’s landing in the 8-13 range and could fit in well with Atlanta and their newly-acquired 12th pick where Budenholzer would likely play him to his strengths without expecting more than the big Austrian is capable of providing.
Malik Beasley – 6’5”, 190lbs, 19-years-old, Hamilton
Malik Beasley is an explosive athlete who shoots it well from the outside and attacks the basket in transition. At 6’5 and 190 he’s not undersized, but certainly needs to get stronger. That shouldn’t be a problem as he won’t turn 20 until after Thanksgiving. His effort level on both ends of the half court and transition is impressive. He has a chance to be a nice two way player in the NBA. Physically, he reminds of Jamal Crawford, long and lanky with limbs that bend as he needs them to. He’ll need to improve his handle in order to maximize his ability to play pick and roll and finish in the paint or get to the line. What’s most notable is how hard he plays. We’ve seen so many guys with high skill level that don’t have the fight in them. Playing hard on every possession is a talent and it’s been enough for some players to stick around longer than they probably should. If his in-game effort carries over to the practice floor and the weight room, Beasley could be a steal in the 15-20 range. The Pacers could use a young wing when the inevitably decide to part ways with Monta Ellis. With Paul George in his prime, adding a young SG who may develop into a starting SG makes sense. Beasley also happens to be from Georgia so the Hawks at 21 might also want to consider him. Their perimeter players are aging (Korver, Thabo) or may move on (Bazemore). Once again, in today’s NBA you can’t have enough wing players who can shoot the ball and give effort on defense.
Comparison: A more athletic JJ Redick Or maybe: Anthony Morrow
Domantas Sabonis – 6’10”, 231lbs, 20-years-old, Fendo
Sabonis is the anti-Poeltl for me. He plays with a high motor and intensity and attacks the boards like Tristan Thompson but with less spring. Fundamentally, he’s sound in a way you’d expect the son of a legend like Arvydas to be. He keeps the ball high, can finish the jump hook with either hand, and is comfortable shooting from range though he defaults to more of a set shot which could be harder to get off against quicker, longer PFs in the NBA. He also has big, strong hands which he puts to rebounding and passing the ball; which he palms extremely easily. For a player his age, he’s impressively decisive and confident with his post moves which ideally will help counteract his biggest perceived physical limitation – short arms. Current pros of similar height and wingspan are Cody Zeller, the Plumlees, and Jason Smith – not exactly the sample set you want to compare favorably to. Seeing players like Draymond Green, Tristan Thompson, and the entire OKC team excel with great length, it’s easy to feel a pang of anxiety that Sabonis has relatively short arms and there’s not a damn thing he can do about it. But his combination of relentlessness and skill are so good that I still rank him high and as an NBA-ready guy. Projecting at the 12-18 range (like Poelt) he makes a lot of sense to Atlanta at 12 or the Bulls at 14 as a PF/C with some strange concoction part Pau Gasol and part Kenneth Faried.
Brice Johnson – 6’9”, 230lbs, 22-years-old (on June 27th)
At 22-years-old, Brice Johnson is one of the oldest and most experienced players in this year’s draft class. It took some time for his game to develop, but he broke out in a big way during his senior season for NCAA Tournament runner-up, North Carolina, with averages of 17ppg and 10.5rpg. Johnson is a freakish athlete with a high motor. He projects as a high-energy rim runner in the NBA and plays above the rim. He excels at finishing in transition and has a nice touch around the hoop in the paint. The biggest knocks on Johnson, other than his age, would be his wiry 210-pound frame and his jump shot. You can get by with that frame in college, but this is the NBA son! To Johnson’s credit, he bulked up to 225 at one point, but it zapped too much of his athleticism and he dropped back down. He did almost all of his damage at UNC in the paint, so it will be interesting to see if he can develop a consistent jump shot to avoid the beating he will most likely take in the paint. Projecting as a late first rounder, Johnson will probably have a good chance to land on a competitive playoff team. After watching the Thunder make the Spurs look old and slow in the playoffs, San Antonio could use a good influx of youth and athleticism. Johnson could give the Spurs some energy and rebounding off the bench. If teams decide to pass late in the first, he could also be an option for the Celtics with one of their 5 second round picks.
Floor: Ed Davis
Ceiling: Shawn Marion
Juan Hernangomez – 6’9”, 220lbs, 20-years-old, Bug
While many young players in the Euroleague have to bide their time riding the bench before they can earn meaningful minutes, Hernangomez was a big contributor playing just under 24 minutes-per-game last season. Based on recent workout footage that has surfaced, Hernangomez has a nice looking shot and moves well for a 6’9” guy. The knock on him is that he is a bit of a SF/PF tweener. Over the last two seasons, he has increased his 3P% from 25% to 34%, so he is trending towards a stretch-4 from an NBA perspective. He’ll need to add some strength to handle the 4 position defensively in the NBA, but you could probably say the same thing for most young players. It’s tough to project where he will go in the draft with a wide range of projections anywhere from 15-40. Based on their history, Hernangomez has Spurs written all over him. He’s also an overseas stash candidate for the two teams that have three first round picks, Boston and Phoenix. Juan’s brother, Willy, was drafted by the Knicks last year, and decided to stay in Spain with Real Madrid this past season…Juan may do the same.
Tyler Ulis – 5’9”, 160lbs, 20-years-old, Maahs
If only. A floor general, leader, court vision, puts his teammates in positions to succeed — what else do you want in a PG? But only standing 5’9″ and 160 lbs, Tyler Ulis lacks the size to make the same impact at the next level. Ulis could be a top-5 pick, if only he was a few inches taller. With an NBA filled roster the last two seasons at Kentucky, Ulis was a pass-first point guard, the kind that teammates love playing with. He demonstrated the ability to direct traffic on the fly and get players in the right spots in order to maximize scoring opportunities on each possession, similar to Chris Paul. A pesky defender, Ulis routinely guarded opposing point guards the length of the court — making it hard for the opposition to initiate their offense. While having good quickness and defensive instincts, Ulis will struggle guarding in the half court, as NBA guards use their size on post ups or to create space, if only he was four inches taller. Offensively, he’s shifty and gets to his spots easily on the floor, but struggles to create space for his jumper, if only he were a few inches taller. OK, OK, I think you get the idea. Ulis possesses many qualities of a prototypical point guard but the lack of size and strength at the next level will be a challenge for him. Only shooting 34% from 3PT, Ulis will need to improve his shooting to compensate for his lack of size. Add in a hip issue that may require surgery down the line, you have prospect that could be selected anywhere between 15-40 in the draft. Playing with an up-tempo team could help hide some of his size deficiencies. With Derrick Rose gone and Jose Calderon off the books in 2107, a team like the Bulls would be a good fit for Ulis.
Floor: TJ Ford
Ceiling: Muggsy Bogues/Chris Paul hybrid (it felt weird typing that)
June 22, 2016Posted by on
Jonathan Givony from Draft Express was a guest on Adrian Wojnarowski’s The Vertical podcast earlier this week and he kicked off by saying that in the 13 years he’s been covering the draft, every year he knows less. The 2016 All-Star game featured players drafted 15th (Kawhi Leonard), 35th (Draymond Green), 24th (Kyle Lowry), 47th (Paul Millsap), and 60th (Isaiah Thomas) – so by some measure, five of the top-24 players in the league (nearly 21%) were drafted 15th or later. The draft is often referred to as an inexact science, but given the above information and the fact that we’ve seen Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, and Andrea Bargnani picked number-one overall in the previous 10 drafts, one wouldn’t be considered a mad man to call the yearly process a shot in the dark (but who’s to blame for Bennett?). Even draft gurus like DX’s Mike Schmitz copped to being sky high on Suns big man Alex Len during the 2013 draft cycle. The science and analysis can be spot on while the results can be the slippery banana peel of your favorite mock draft.
With all that in mind, my compadres and I are drifting away from the impossible-to-predict mock draft (I believe we accurately guessed two out of 30 first round picks in 2015 which is a rate so poor even Harrison Barnes can gloat), and focusing on a player-centric analysis that explores 36 players, their skills, and potential fits based on projected pick ranges. We’ve written far too many words and don’t agree on everything, but once upon a time someone deemed Michael Olowakandi the top choice in an NBA draft that featured multiple Hall of Famers so maybe consensus is overrated. This is part one of three, so settle in with your favorite beverage and a bag of chips; the future is waiting:
Ben Simmons – 6’10”, 239lbs, 20-years-old (on July 20th), Maahs
Sixers Outlook: After a freshman season filled with inconsistent shooting, character concerns and a lack of winning, Simmons has gone from presumably to possibly being the #1 pick. It’s hard to see how any of these questions will be immediately answered after being selected by the Sixers. Projecting as a point-forward, it will be a challenge for Brett Brown to maximize Simmons’ skill set with Sam Hinkie’s “process” filled roster. While the log jam of big men is not ideal, Brown could possibly divide the Embiid/Okafor/Noel trio among the first and second unit. And should Dario Saric (a Toni Kukoc-type player) come over, the Sixers could create some offensive continuity with both units being run through the point forward position. If the Sixers don’t trade any of their centers, they’ll still have approximately $65 million in 2016-17 cap space to surround Simmons with the necessary backcourt shooting. Brett Brown has known Simmons since he was born and coached his dad in Australia. If anyone can establish a rapport with the young Australian born player, Brett Brown is the guy.
Brandon Ingram – 6’9”, 196lbs, 18-years-old, Bug
Lakers Outlook: With the 2016 NBA Draft widely considered a “two-man draft,” the Lakers have the luxury here of not being able to mess up this pick. Now that the Black Mamba has slithered off into the sunset, the Lakers can truly start the rebuilding process that Kobe had tried unsuccessfully to fight. The young nucleus of Russell, Clarkson, Randle and Nance Jr. is lacking a small forward, so Ingram slots in as a perfect fit in the starting lineup. Standing at 6’9” with a freakishly long 7’3” wingspan, he’s often compared to the slight-framed Kevin Durant and that length will provide new coach Luke Walton with plenty of options to exploit mismatches on smaller defenders, while his outside shooting will give the Lakers some much needed floor spacing. The addition of Ingram will firmly put the “Farewell Tour” in the rearview, and help usher in the new era of Lakers basketball.
Jamal Murray – 6’5”, 201lbs, 19-years-old, Maahs
After a workout with Boston, in which Murray made 79 out of 100 three-point attempts, Murray was quoted saying, “I believe I’m the best player in the draft, but every team needs what they need.” While he may not be the best player in the draft, every team needs shooting. No team in the top half of the lottery has a more desperate shooting need than the Minnesota Timberwolves. Ranking 31st in 3PT made last season, Murray could provide instant help in that area while playing both guard positions. Seen as an average athlete and a weak defender, a couple of years under Thibs would be valuable for Murray’s development on the defensive end. The ability to play both guard positions, along with his age, has placed Murray ahead of Buddy Hield in the eyes of some scouts. With Eric Gordon hitting free agency and Jrue Holiday inevitability injured for a good chunk of the 2016-17 season, New Orleans has an immediate need for a guard capable of playing both positions. Playing alongside a rim-protector in Anthony Davis would help hide some of Murray’s defensive deficiencies while he adjusts to the NBA game. His hot shooting Boston workout could entice Danny Ainge to take Murray with the #3 pick. Brad Stevens’ position-less style of play would fit perfectly with Murray’s game and he could easily be paired up with a defensive minded guard (Bradley/Smart) while on the floor.
Floor: OJ Mayo
Kris Dunn – 6’4”, 205lbs, 22-years-old, Bug
After the top two guys come off the board, the next handful of picks is where things will get interesting. Kris Dunn is the unquestioned number one point guard, and possibly the best two-way player in this year’s draft. Dunn has great size for a PG at 6’4” and the elite athleticism to be an absolute menace on the defensive end. That same size also allows him to be able to guard some 2-guards as well. He is a nightmare to handle in transition offensively, and has developed a dependable jump shot that should only get better as his game matures. Because of his two-way ability, Dunn has a high floor and is probably one of the safest picks in this year’s draft. With the NBA transitioning to a perimeter-oriented league, point guard is a premium position in today’s game. The only problem for Dunn is that the teams drafting in the 3-7 range are pretty much set at the position. This has led to wide speculation that a trade will probably go down to acquire the Providence product. Recent buzz has the Sixers trying to work out a deal with the Celtics to acquire Dunn at #3. The Bulls have also been rumored to be very high on him, but moving up from #14 seems highly unlikely (Ed’s note: Derrick Rose was traded just after this was written). If there’s no trade action, the best fit in terms of need for Kris would be in New Orleans. Jrue Holiday has been a disaster with the Pels (mostly because of constant injuries), and Alvin Gentry’s team needs a young perimeter building block to pair with Anthony Davis.
Floor: Devin Harris
Ceiling: John Wall hybrid
Buddy Hield – 6’4”, 214lbs, 22-years-old, Hamilton
The most explosive scorer/shooter in the draft, Buddy lights teams up. It only takes a quick half step to get into his shooting rhythm from deep. A hesitation (modeled after Kyrie) would make him even more lethal on the attack. Skilled and strong enough to contribute right away, a team with playoff aspirations won’t have to wait for contribution from the 22-year-old. Scouts have been killing his defense and it needs to get better. But the foundation is there: decent size at SG, hard worker, smart player, raises his game when it matters. There’s no good reason to think he won’t become an acceptable NBA defender. The best fit in this range is New Orleans. Eric Gordon has one more year on his deal, and can’t reasonably be brought back. Physically and mentally mature, Buddy will be ready for big minutes when the Hobbit goes down and ultimately leaves New Orleans. With another high character young guy in Anthony Davis it’s an ideal situation both ways. (Now bring Monty back!) Outside shooting and spacing are so integral to today’s NBA one might expect Buddy to go on the higher side of 4-8, but as we get closer to the draft he’s trending the other way. Feels like a lot of teams might regret passing on him.
Floor: JJ Redick
Hottest Take: a top-seven all-time SG.
Henry Ellenson – 6’10”, 231lbs, 19-years-old, Bug
It doesn’t take long after turning on the Henry Ellenson tape to realize that this is a highly skilled big man with a lot of offensive tools in his toolbox. The thing that pops the most is the fluid ball handling for a player of his size. Ellenson goes 6’10”, 240, but he has no problem grabbing a defensive rebound and taking the ball coast-to-coast through traffic and finishing with either hand. His post-game is solid, highlighted by a soft touch and ability to score over either shoulder. The former Marquette star is also one of the draft’s best rebounders to bolster his offensive skill. The biggest knock on Ellenson is his lack of explosiveness. This could cause some problems for him defensively, but his overall talent will make the defensive liability more tolerable. Ellenson is projected to go somewhere between 9-15 in the draft, but based on recent workout reports of him shooting the ball well for Milwaukee, it is becoming more apparent that he could be a top-10 pick with the Bucks. Milwaukee is actively trying to move Greg Monroe, and Ellenson could come in and provide them a much needed boost shooting and scoring.
Floor: Josh McRoberts
Ceiling: Ryan Anderson with handles
Furkan Korkmaz – 6’7”, 185lbs, 19-years-old (on July 24th), Bug
This Turkish import has a nice offensive skillset with a deadly outside jumper and better than average athleticism. Korkmaz has an impressive highlight reel with a good mix of outside jumpers, drives to the hoop, and has the ability to finish above the rim. Still only 18-years-old, Korkmaz is a big unknown against top level competition after spending much of his time this past season riding the pine in the Euroleague (11.5 mpg). He flashed enough in the FIBA Europe junior league to have NBA scouts intrigued with his upside. Due to him probably being 1-2 years away from contributing, his ideal fit would be a team that has multiple first round picks and can bring him along slowly. Denver, Phoenix and Boston all have multiple picks in the first round that could see him go anywhere from the 13-23 range. Denver stands out as a particularly good fit out of those three teams. They have a strong international presence on the team and his outside shooting touch would be a good compliment in a backcourt rotation with Mudiay.
NBA Comparison: Nick Young
Denzel Valentine – 6’6”, 223lbs, 22-years-old, Hamilton
The word on Denzel Valentine is a significant right knee issue has his draft stock slipping out of the lottery and into the low 20s. One team went as far as comparing it to Danny Granger’s situation. Having one’s knee compared to Granger’s is almost as bad as it gets for a draftee. If only Portland were picking here, it’d be a no-brainer for them. Most noteworthy of the myriad skills he possesses, is his passing ability. Taking it a step further, his passing ability on the move – both in transition and in pick and roll situations – is NBA level stuff. He makes the right decisions and delivers the ball with precision to cutters, open shooters and alley-oop dunkers. He rebounded well at MSU but that will be tough to replicate in at this level. Boston, Denver and Detroit all pick in this range and all employ good quality NBA head coaches. To borrow a line from Omar Little “Even if I miss I can’t miss.” Though true, it’s the Pistons at #18 where Valentine makes the most sense. He shoots it well enough to space the floor for Andre Drummond and has the passing skills to get him the ball at the rim. Despite being a local guy, the pressure wouldn’t be too much here because he’d start out behind KCP, Stanley Johnson, Morris Twin and Tobias Harris. A chance to further develop his basketball brain under Stan Van Gundy would be a positive way to start a career. As several former SVG players have remarked SVG demands a lot from his players, and they get better and better under his watch.
Floor: Out the league in 4 yrs with a bum knee
Ceiling: an SG/SF Draymond Green
Bold Prediction: Makes at least 2 All-Star teams
Timothe Luwawu – 6’7”, 205lbs, 21-years-old, Hamilton
The young Frenchman has solid NBA size and a skillset ideal as a rotation player in today’s NBA. His increased 3-point shooting (36% on 5.3 attempts per) from 14-15 to 15-16 is definitely worth noting. He gets good elevation on his 3-point-shot and isn’t shy about letting it fly from deep. With a lot of bounce on the drive and good length he passes the eye test as well. Effort on the defensive end needs to be better but that’s a common critique of young wing players. Hoopshype says Luwawu “is probably more dependent on landing on the right situation …” That’s part of what we’re looking for in this draft and for Luwawu that team is Charlotte picking at #22. Luwawu could do worse than joining a strong competitive leader in Kemba Walker and the chance to play behind his fellow countryman Nicolas Batum (assuming the Hornets re-sign him). Batum’s been around the block a few times and should help Luwawu adjust to life in the NBA and life in these United States. Charlotte can always use affordable NBA potential and Luwawu possesses it although he won’t be ready to play right away. While the Hornets aren’t the most stable environment in the league, it’s far from dysfunctional any longer and most of a competitive nucleus remains under contract for 16-17.
Reasonable comparison: Danny Green
More likely? Back to Europe Rudy Fernandez style.
Malachi Richardson – 6’6”, 200lbs, 20-years-old, Maahs
Those playing the draft night drinking game should get a full beer ready when Malachi’s name is called. Wingspan. Wingspan. Wingspan. At 6’6” with a 7-foot wingspan and a 38-inch vertical, Richardson has the size and length that makes NBA front offices salivate. These measurables combined with a smooth shooting stroke and a quick release, makes it’s easy to see why the 20-year old wing prospect has risen on many draft boards and is one of the 19 green room invitees on draft night. Like many young players, Richardson likes to hold the ball and square up his defender prior to make his first move. He has a nice bounce with the ball is in his hands and is capable of shooting off the dribble at any point during his initial move towards the rim. Consistent shooting was an issue during his freshman season at Syracuse — shooting 35% from 3PT and an abysmal 24% on two-point jumpers. Despite these shooting inconsistencies, Richardson is capable scorer and can rack up points in bunches as was evident during the Elite Eight win against Virginia — scoring 21 points in the second half with many of those coming against Malcolm Brogdon, the ACC’s defensive player of the Year. Playing only zone in college, it’s challenging for GM’s to get a true read on Richardson’s defensive capabilities. Like most rookies, there would be a defensive learning curve but his could be a little steeper. But with his length and a concentration on improved shot consistency it’s reasonable to think Richardson could easily be a 3-D guy at the next level. Once considered a late first/early second round pick, Richardson could be picked anywhere from 9-20 in the draft. Landing on a team like the Pacers with a primary playmaker (Paul George) could help his development — allowing him to focus on 3-D skills before taking on more offensive responsibilities.
Floor: Terrence Ross
Wade Baldwin – 6’3”, 195lbs, 20-years-old, Hamilton
Wade Baldwin boasts good size for a PG at 6’4 and nearly 200 pounds. He has broad shoulders and likes to play to contact. He uses those physical tools along with a 6’11” wingspan to be an effective defender. His 38” vertical is yet another impressive metric. Unfortunately, his limitations are equally significant. He lacks much ability to attack small gaps to get into the paint in half court situations – all his highlights on the dribble are transition plays. His jump shot is from out in front of his face and appears to have a low release point. He makes it at a good clip (40% on 199 3s attempted in 2 years), but it looks easier to contest than that of other big guards. With a loose handle, it’s kind of difficult to see Baldwin ever being really good in pick and roll situations. Mocks show the Bulls like Baldwin at 14 and on some levels this pick makes sense. They may believe Baldwin is their post-Rose PG. They have no other PGs under contract for 16-17. Yet, given the totality of Baldwin’s strengths and weaknesses Fred Hoiberg is not the ideal coach. Defense is barely an afterthought for typical Hoiberg-led AAU squads. Player development appears to be equally important. If the Bulls have a repeat of 15-16, a coaching change should be in the cards. Next level PGs tend to have overachieving college teams. In a down SEC, the 2015-16 Vanderbilt team went 19-12 and lost the play-in game to Wichita State. I watched that game and didn’t even notice the Commodore PG (9 pts on 3-9, 5 ast, 4 TOs). I may be getting the wrong read on this player, but I just don’t see him having a major impact in the NBA.
Comparison: Poor Man’s Bradley Beal
Marquese Chriss – 6’9”, 225lbs, 19-years-old (on July 2nd), Fendo
I’ll be completely honest: I have no idea what Marquese Chriss’s NBA career looks like. He spent his freshman year at the University of Washington as a long-neck/torso having pogo stick of a power forward/center who would alternately shock and awe you with his quick-jumping dunks, then drive you batty picking up unnecessary dumbass fouls. The world exists between laughter and tears though and Chriss is more than his peaks or valleys. But for the teams sitting in the roughly three through ten range where he’s projected, patience is a virtue I hope they have. Lorenzo Romar’s Huskies switched everything on defense last year with the result being point guards on centers and Chriss on point guards. He moves his feet well enough and is gifted with copious athletic gifts, but attempted to adjust to the NCAA’s updated quick whistle officiating, Chriss fouled out 15 times in 34 games and had another 10 games where he picked up at least four fouls. A lot of this can be attributed to biting on shot fakes or just terrible decisions on loose balls or rebounds. Subtly though, there his defensive decision making improved. He continued to pick up fouls throughout the season, but he as he adjusted to the tight whistles, he spent more and more time on the court – going from 21-22 minutes/game in November/December to 27-29 minutes in February/March. I call this out as evidence of an ability to adapt. For a guy who didn’t start playing hoops until later than most of his peers, the immediacy of any pro success is going to correlate directly to how quick he can adapt to NBA-level speed, skill, and physicality. Along with the fouls, the other low-key red flag at UW was a nonchalant dismissiveness. Chriss’s body language frequently communicated a sense of a player annoyed or frustrated at being challenged. If this characteristic is anything more than a blip, he’ll struggle in the NBA where he’ll be challenged every night of the year. But with a quick release on a quality jumper (35% on nearly two three attempts/game) and world class athleticism, he’ll get his chance – ideally with a team like the Nuggets or Boston where he’s in a low-pressure environment with quality coaching. From there, maybe he becomes Tyrus Thomas or Derrick Williams or some hyper-athletic peak Terrance Jones.
May 17, 2016Posted by on
It was somehow over five years ago, almost to the day that I wrote my first post, titled (with conviction no doubt) San Antonio Blues. It was the opening round of the playoffs and the Spurs, led by a 34-year-old Tim Duncan, were in the process of being unceremoniously dumped by a resurgent Grizzlies team that was making its first playoff appearance in four years.
Back in 2011, I wrote:
The incarnation of the Spurs that we know: the systematic offense (even you, Ginobili, with your behind the backs and violent head fakes, are systematic), constricting defense, the method, practiced and refined, perfectly improvised; this version is gone. It’s the same group of guys wearing the same jerseys and coming up with the same regular season results (61 wins and a number one seed in the west), but with different method.
To look back now, it feels so improbable that in a five-year span San Antonio took that “different method” to its zenith, won two titles; then cut back again and managed to win 67 games with a historically dominant defense. I have no feeling about being right or wrong, but I lacked imagination and an inability to see the possibility of reinvention and regeneration – even though it was in front of my face. (re re re – it feels like Duncan, Manu, Parker and Pop are case studies for pro sport re-imagination which is a fantastical leap of the will of the mind triumphing over ego.)
When I made my first post in 2011 it was with some sense of finality, some foreboding feeling that the book was closing on the Spurs. But it was a two-pronged failure of a prognostication: First, that the Spurs as a Parker-Duncan-Ginobili core were finished, but there was no ending, just a chapter closing. The Spurs layered in Leonard, built Green out of his own best basketball self, seamlessly integrated Boris Diaw, and developed guys like Patty Mills and Cory Joseph. Whether it was R.C. Buford or Pop or both of them ideating on a porch swing on some San Antonian veranda, the Spurs collective hatched an idea and executed against it. My second failure was just an inability as a 30-year-old (was I just 30 then? It feels like another plane of my life.) in 2011 to foresee the inevitability of change without death. As a 35-year-old writing this now, it’s easy to look back at my growth as a human, a man; growth on mental and emotional levels with the comprehension of deep and honest loss and clearly see an inability to transpose that onto athletes or a team. Yet that’s exactly what happened with this group of Spurs – existential growth in the midst of physical decline.
Aside from the past, these playoff Spurs glided into a clumsy landing to the 2016 season. In 2011 I compared their defeat at the hands of a hungry, aggressive Grizzlies team to Biggie’s “Things Done Changed” track off Ready to Die. I’m fresh out hip hop metaphors, but these past six games in the Western Conference semifinals have been reminiscent of that decimation five years ago. Even though they’ve become Western Conference staples, OKC is still a younger, more athletic collection of talent than most of their opponents – particularly the Spurs – but they’ve grown into a more brutally bludgeoning version of themselves. If it was the hunger of Tony Allen and Sam Young symbolizing the fearlessness of those original Grit & Grinders, it was Steven Adams and Enes Kanter in this series. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are the thoroughbreds gallivanting through the halls of basketball glory, but it was the thumping insistence of Kanter and Adams that acted as human body blows to Duncan, Aldridge, West, and even giant Boban Marjanovic. Where lesser players may have flinched at the snarls and glares of West, Adams and Kanter treated him like another speed bump on their way to rebounds and the Western Conference Finals.
It wasn’t just victory and defeat, but the manner of victory. It was physical, not executional. It was strength and endurance, not just mental fortitude. I don’t know or care if the Spurs were better prepared because it doesn’t matter now. OKC had too many horses or dogs or Kanters or Adamses. They were unrelenting and somehow inevitable.
And at the five-year anniversary of starting this blog, I find myself impressed by those still blessed by the sliver of youth (Durant and Russ have been in their mid-20s forever it seems) but relating to the unrelenting nature of change and age. I sit often with my leg propped up and an ice pack around my hamstring, going on six weeks nursing an injury that happened in a pickup game – half court no less. And though I don’t have title rings or banners, and though I rooted for OKC, I’ve never before been so capable of relating to the Spurs, that aging core with its calm, but confident acceptance of the passage of time. There isn’t any sadness in this defeat; there’s plenty of that outside basketball. It’s just change, one foot in front of the other, one day after the next with time offering endless opportunities for context and reflection.
March 10, 2016Posted by on
Russell Westbrook spent last spring (Feb-April) averaging 31.4 points-per-game, 9.7 assists, 8.6 rebounds, and two steals while shooting 85% on 11.4 free throw attempts/game. Because of that and because of hundreds of games of visual and statistical evidence, I shouldn’t be surprised when Westbrook unleashes hell’s scorn on opponents like he did against the Clippers tonight when he pulverized Chris Paul of Meet the Hoopers ad campaigns (“Kevin, where you get all them dimes from?”) and his Clipper friends/teammates to the tune of 25 points, 11 rebounds, and a career-best 20 assists.
Dancing with Noah is nothing if not interested in random historical comparisons for the sakes of context and connecting to a shared past – one that often creates feelings of nostalgia in me if we’re being honest. And while it might be a poor carpenter who blames his tools, it’s a resourceful blogger that utilizes the genius gift-giving of basketball-reference’s Player Game Finder tool.
25 points, 20 assists since 1983-84
The list is longer than I expected: 10 players accomplished the feat 22 times since 83-84 with Russ making #23. (Also, NBA TV tells us Oscar Robertson had the 25-20-10+ triple double three times.)
It was last accomplished by Steve Nash in January of 2006 in a triple overtime losing effort against the Knicks. Nash played 55 minutes scoring 28 points on 3-13 shooting from three with 22 assists. Also of note: Shawn Marion played 60 minutes for the Suns (39 and 14) and Eddy Curry of Baby Bulls fame went for 20 and 15. But painfully (for Bulls fans at least) we digress.
Perhaps it was a glimpse into the future: Stephon Marbury running the offense to near perfection, Keith Van Horn scoring on jump shots and powerful drives, the other Nets contributing in various ways and, maybe, just maybe, Don Casey on the sideline planning the strategy.
It wasn’t a glimpse into the future, but it was a hell of game from Marbury and he wasn’t hesitant to let everyone know: “A lot of people don’t have enough heart to throw the ball (referring to behind-the-back passes) because they think they’re going to get a turnover. I’m totally different. I know that it’s going to get there if I see him ahead of time and the guy steps to the ball.”
I won’t go through every occurrence, but call out a couple because every impressively unique performance is wrapped in a story. There are a couple more games that stood out for various reasons like John Stockton’s (he of four appearances on the 25-20 list) 26-point, 24-assist, 6-steal on 12-16 shooting effort against the Rockets in January of 1988. He also had just one turnover. In a most Stockton quote ever, Houston Chronicle writer Eddie Sefko reported that Stockton said, “The night means nothing without the win.” Of course not.
There’s a 10:30 condensed version of Stockton’s gem on Youtube which I’ve included below. And maybe it’s the splicing, but the game feels like it’s played at a breakneck pace. There’s something kinetic about it and it’s not just Stockton pushing breaks or Malone filling in those breaks and celebrating with weird fist pumps after dunks (fast forward to 2:00), but there’s constant movement and a radio-style announcer describing every moment of activity.
The condensed clip is worth watching as an artifact of three of our greatest players at or near the peak of their powers. Stockton as the engine, Malone as the body, and Olajuwon and as a lean do-everything center who went for 26-13 with seven steals and five blocks. Stockton is the show-stealer though as he single-handedly dictates how Utah would run in a way which Sefko described as “passing (that) would have made Boomer Esiason envious.” For a team associated in their later years with the Stockton/Malone pick and roll, their fast break was a purple wave rushing with Stockton at its head, flanked by Malone, Darrell Griffith and Thurl Bailey. Oh the breaks! As if Sefko wasn’t enough, one announcer (at 6:35) can be heard saying, “The Cowboys ought to forget about Troy Aikman, they oughta sign up John Stockton to quarterback that ball club.”
We can expand the criteria from merely the paltry, lazy man’s 25-20 to include the double digit boards as well which narrows our list down to Russ, Magic (twice), Isiah once, and the aforementioned Robertson with three.
And our final focus will be Magic Johnson’s 32-point, 20-assist, 11-rebound masterpiece in November of 1988 against Sir Charles Barkley’s 76ers. Magic’s performance was such that it inspired Los Angeles Times writer Gordon Edes to proclaim, “an agnostic might argue that the only religion the Lakers needed was Magic Johnson’s 32 points, 20 assists, and 11 rebounds.” Egads, Edes!
But such was Magic’s game that he evoked highest of praise and who can blame Edes for hyperbole when he writes that Magic scored 12 of his 32 in the last four-and-a-half minutes including a three that put the Lakers ahead for good. Magic’s game only seems appropriate against the backdrop painted by Edes who describes a scene that included Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s farewell ceremony in Philadelphia accompanied by Grover Washington Jr. playing sax, Laker Tony Campbell getting ejected for apparently telling the ref “I love you, but that was a terrible call,” Orlando Woolridge getting kicked in the head and being unable to feel his fingers, and Charles Barkley shooting 5-14 from the line to muddy up an otherwise gorgeous 31-point, 23-rebound, 6-assist game with 13-19 shooting from the field. We throw around “what a time to be alive” with vulgar irony, but Christ, November 28th, 1988 was the time to be alive and Philadelphia was the place so sayeth Magic, Charles and Gordon Edes. Edes wraps the piece with a spookily prescient quote from Magic, “Two, three, four years, I’ll be gone. Then I’ll be delivering in a Park and Recreation League.” Magic was right about the timeline, just no one could’ve foreseen the circumstances.
And to take it back to where we started with Russell, he just so happened to be born just 16 days before Magic recorded his game against Philadelphia which was the last time we had an induction into the 25-20-10 club. There’s something oddly circular to the timing here, but let’s not dwell on coincidences. But damn, in some kind of cosmic nod to Stockton, all Russ was concerned with was the win as he said, “Just a win, man. More important just to see all my teammates happy and all see my teammates enjoy the game and enjoy this win.” It’s all too much coincidence or else there are some threads streaking through basketball space-time connecting Oscar to Magic to Stockton to Steph to Steve to Russ. Sometimes the continuity is too great.
March 8, 2016Posted by on
Since the All-Star snubbing of Damian Lillard, one of the more compelling roadshows of the league has been the Damian Lillard does-Kill Bill on the rest of the NBA. He’s averaging nearly 33 points, hitting nearly four threes/game with a TS% of 64% and a pair of +50-point-games to boot. In my worst Clyde Frazier parlance, he’s feasting and beasting on the rest of the league. And most important for the post-season coffers, the Blazers have gone 6-4 in that post All-Star stretch and played themselves into the 7th spot of a crowded Western Conference playoff race.
But alas, the world doesn’t revolve around Lillard. Other players, through transaction, renewed role, or just revitalized visualization, have accepted the challenge of the last leg of the season with vim and vigor.
I’m happy you dumped me, my new friends are great: The Hawks and the Jazz are often connected for some strange reason. Pistol Pete Maravich enjoyed success with both franchises, Dominique Wilkins was drafted by Utah then traded to Atlanta, Demarre Carroll and Paul Millsap both left Salt Lake City for the ATL, and now we can add Shelvin Mack to the great culture shock pipeline. In what Kevin Arnovitz described as the Hawks “doing (Mack) a solid,” the team sent the Butler point guard on his way on the trade deadline day. The Jazz might be 2-6 since acquiring their new guard, but Mack’s had a positive plus/minus in five of those games and has appeared in more minutes in every game with the Jazz than he did in any game with Atlanta. More John Stockton or more Raul Neto? Let’s move on.
Speaking of players reaping personal benefits of changing scenery, everyone’s favorite New Yorker nicknamed “Born Ready,” (Lance Stephenson for the uninitiated) has been enjoying a renaissance in Memphis where he was dealt (along with a 2019 first rounder) in exchange for Jeff Green. Stephenson’s appearing in seven more minutes/game with a 9% increase in usage rate (15% to 24%) while also seeing an improvement in TS% (from 57% to 59%). The Grizz are 5-3 since Lance joined and he’s no doubt tickled pink to be out of Doc Rivers’ doghouse once and for all. (Note: Memphis went into Cleveland as I wrote this and despite being painfully shorthanded, beat the Cavs as Stephenson scored 17 in 27 minutes though he did have the Grizz’s worst plus/minus.)
Just gimme a chance, I’m the right one for you: The Suns have descended into a crustiness where players are injured, the coach was fired, Earl Watson (he of very little coaching experience) has been given the keys to the car which he may or may not be able to drive and nothing seems to be going right (except they’ve won back-to-back games). But then there’s some glimpse of the future wrapped in the body of 7’1”, 22-year-old Ukrainian Alex Len. Now in his third year, Len has had these mini-spikes throughout his time in the league where he’s strung together double doubles and swatted shots with impunity. So what to make of his latest run? Post-ASB he’s averaging 11 more minute minutes/game, scoring 12 more points (19ppg), and has recorded as many double doubles (five) in eight games as he has all season. On the flipside his net-rating is -11.3 and his plus/minus is -6.1. His counting stats are up, but his rate stats are down or flat. Things are ultra-shitty in Phoenix right now though, so maybe the jury’s still deliberating on Len.
Speaking of youngsters, a few of last year’s rookies have been given green lights galore: Jabari Parker, Zach LaVine, and Aaron Gordon have had their collective training wheels removed and are being thrown into the wide world of Excitebike. Dunk contests hold some level of basketball cultural meaning, but at the same time, dunk contests don’t score points and defend the pick and roll. Maybe they build confidence though and for a trio of kids that are legally too young to drink, confidence is as critical as legs. Like Len, these youngsters have experienced sporadic successes, poor coaching, and injuries in their 1.75 seasons in the league, but this post-ASB has hints and hopes of something sustainable:
They’re all getting more playing time, scoring more and shooting better. None is more notable than the rest, but Parker’s becoming the scorer we thought/hoped he could be with running mate Giannis Antetokounmpo picking up triple doubles in a most Draymond Green manner. LaVine’s accuracy and shooting are seeing spikes as crackpot coach Sam Mitchell does the unthinkable and plays the evolutionary Gerald Green at off guard instead of point. LaVine’s usage is down 5%, but he’s shooting so much better – for once the armchair coaches were right! And All-Star weekend’s big winner in Aaron Gordon is seeing more minutes which is coinciding with a swing in NetRtg (per NBA.com) from -1.7 pre-ASB to +4.7 post-ASB alongside a -1.2 to +2.7 improvement in plus/minus. He’s able to defend multiple positons as well as take the defensive board and push the break himself. Oh the places you will go, Mr. Gordon.
Y’all must have forgot! (the Roy Jones Jr. version): Even though trainers and sports scientists need injuries and destructible human bodies in order to stay employed, injuries are no good. But the occasional silver lining that accompanies an injury is the return from said injury. Chandler Parsons muddled through an injury-riddled season in 2014-15 and struggled to find the form that earned him a three-year, $46-million deal in the summer of 2014. An off-season knee surgery (something described as “hybrid microfracture”) slowed his 2015-16 season with minute restrictions, but with an ASB to recharge (perhaps mentally as well as physically), Parsons has come out guns blazing. He’s taking and making more attempts with fat upticks in 3p% and TS%, but most impressive has been a jump in plus/minus from -1.3 pre-ASB to +17.2 post.
And sometimes it’s not just a player rediscovering his own motor or touch, it’s an injury-generated opening that creates circumstances where a formerly-injured pro seizes the opportunity. That’s what it feels like in Miami where Chris Bosh is unfortunately undergoing complications related to the same blood clots that knocked him out of last season, but meanwhile super-pro Luol Deng is stepping into a much-needed role. His post-ASB numbers show a beefy 5.3% increase in rebound percentage (nearly doubling his rpg from 4.7 to 9.3) and he’s getting to the line for three more attempts/game while scoring 17/game compared to under 11 previously. The Bosh-hole is huge and gaping, but Deng, along with Hassan Whiteside, Amare Stoudemire, and Josh McRoberts are finding ways to fill it as best they can. Miami’s 8-2 post-ASB.
Speaking of unfortunate blood clots, Mirza Teletovic has had better fortune with clots that ended his 2014-15 season than Bosh. And like Len, he’s a beneficiary of the Phoenix flop. It’s not enough to just have an opportunity, but those who shine on like crazy diamonds are the ones who grab the opportunity and Teletovic’s done that. Since the ASB, he’s making over three threes/game while pulling down nearly 6rpg. For context, there’s not a player in the league who’s averaging that combination.
I never dreamed my game would leave in spring: As much as it’s fun to celebrate success, it’s only fair to recognize the struggle because it’s real. Let’s start with Draymo Green who’s seen his post-ASB shooting touch flushed straight down some East Bay sewer. Post-ASB he’s 5-26 from three (19%). Anything scoring related is down – FG%, FT%, PPG, eFG%, TS%. Golden State keeps winning games, but as Draymo has struggled, so too has the team. For a player that appears to be powerfully driven by his own confidence, whatever it is that’s impeding his return to pre-ASB shooting would ideally be rediscovered prior to May.
Speaking of performances tied into coaching changes, all we heard in Cleveland was how Tyronn Lue was going to get the Cavs running and take full advantage of Kevin Love’s elite skill set. That hasn’t necessarily been the case though as Love’s post-ASB splits have taken some odd turns. He’s getting less three-point attempts/game (not necessarily a bad thing), but his accuracy has dipped from 37% to 23.5%. His rebound percentage is down over 5% resulting in a pedestrian 7.5rpg. The Cavs have lost four of 10 games and each loss results in internal reflection and LeBron admonishments. All is not well in The ‘Land.
It’s a small sample size, but every trend starts somewhere. Now if we can just follow Lillard’s lead, I suppose we’ll all end up in a decent place. Even you, Ty Lue.
March 2, 2016Posted by on
Except for October, February’s the leanest, lightest month in the NBA season. There’s the All-Star break, a short month, and the trade deadline throwing wrenches into players and their pursuits of historical nobility, but what applies to today’s players applied to the players of yesteryear and so the locomotive pushes forth down the tracks headed to the inevitability of an 82-game stopping point. Niceties aside, let’s get into the cold inflexibility of the numbers:
- Andre Drummond: 902 rebounds in 60 games: For a while it felt like maybe Drummond’s pace was slowing but that was back in the day, back in January when he averaged just 12.6rpg in 15 games. February was a new month and like the first buds sprouting on the branches of spring, Drummond’s arose with his consumption of 24.3% of all rebounds with a 15.2 average for the month. The last player to rebound like this was Kevin Love in 2010-11 and before that Dennis Rodman did it thrice and Kevin Willis once. Sadly, Drummond is the worst free throw shooter of the bunch.
- Hassan Whiteside: 195 blocks in 50 games: He’s not starting anymore, but he’s blocking more shots. February was Whiteside’s best shot blocking month since November as he swatted 37 shots in nine games while turning in a DRtg of 89 and his best plus/minus of the season at +3.1. Honestly, he was a beast across the board with season highs in TS%, ppg, and rpg all while playing his least minutes/game. Whiteside’s blocking the most shots since Marcus Camby back in 2007-08, but it doesn’t mean the enigma of his emotional volatility is any clearer. Someone’s rightly going to pay that man his money, but is this the guy you want as the defensive anchor for your team? I’m unconvinced, but I’ll listen.
- James Harden: 268 turnovers in 60 games: By some measures like points, rebounds, and assists, Harden’s having the most prolific season of his career. By other measures like turnovers, he’s having the worst. But one thing we can say for Harden is that he’s been steady Eddie when it comes to turning the ball over. He took a cool 4.42 TOV/game average into February, turned the ball over 47 times in 10 games and cranked that average up to 4.5 – the type of ball control messiness not seen since Allen Iverson in 2004-05. Before that it was Charles Barkley and Isiah Thomas in 1986-87. The Rockets went 4-6 over that stretch and Dwight Howard was not traded.
- Stephen Curry: 288 3s made in 58 games: I’m all Steph’d out. 288 threes in 58 games (he’s only played 56, but I’m handicapping his number by including his team’s total games) is 90 threes more than the next closest player – Ray Allen from 2005-06 when Seattle used to have a pro basketball team called the Sonics.
- Draymond Green: 551 rebounds and 421 assists in 58 games: Averaging nearly 10 rebounds and 7.5 assists, Draymo has no company on this list. (As a reminder, all stats are pulled from basketball-reference’s game finder tool which has games dating back to 1983-84). But if we want to explore his statistical peers, then we’re looking at guys who’ve averaged 13ppg, 9.5rpg, and 7apg. It’s a small list that includes Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson (four times) and Wilt Chamberlain (twice). Draymo’s shooting went in the tank in February (18% from three), but that didn’t stop him from shaping the hell out of the outcomes with averages of ~10-10-8 for the month.
- Kristaps Porzingis: 67 3s and 116 blocks in 61 games: He’s no Karl-Anthony Towns, but big fucking deal. Not everyone can be the heir to Tim Duncan. Instead Porzingis is just a 7’3” kid making over a three/game while blocking nearly two shots/night. For a 20-year-old kid unaccustomed to the grind of an 82-game season with travel and living in a new country, the Zinger’s been impressively consistent. Last month he had four peers within this stat set, but this time around it’s just three; the most recent Serge Ibaka last season.
- Paul George: 161 3s made and 423 rebounds in 60 games: Maybe more impressive than George being the third player since 83-84 to average 7+ rebounds while making over 2.5 3s/game through 60 games is that he hasn’t missed a single game in his first full year returning from injury. All season long it’s been George and Antoine Walker holding down the fort for this club, but a steady month-over-month decline in 3PM/game has opened the door to the inclusion of Ryan Anderson (2011-12) of stretch four trade rumor fame.
- Kawhi Leonard: 51% FG, 48.8% 3pt, 88.2% FT in 59 games: With the Spurs getting their asses kicked a couple times in the past month or so, some of the clamor around Leonard quieted a bit, but in the meanwhile (aka, February), he had a 65% TS on the strength of 50% from three and 54% from the field. Through 59 games (the number of games his team has played – Kawhi’s played just 54), the only other player that has shot as well (51-48-88) is Fred Hoiberg back in 2004-05 when he went for the remarkable 52-53-88 through 59 games.
- Karl-Anthony Towns: 615 rebounds and 106 blocks in 60 games: The best rookie in nearly 20 years, Towns is proving Duncan-esque in his consistency and that’s appropriate since Tim Duncan’s the last rookie to rebound and blocks shots as well as Towns. But if we want to get super exclusive, we could just expand the criteria to include Towns’s 20 made threes and we’ll filter out Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem, etc. That feels unfair though since the game is entering a period of evolution so let’s add free throw accuracy to the mix instead. If we set the FT% at 80% (Towns shoots 82%), Karl-Anthony will be singing “one is the loneliest number” all by his damn self. Karl-Anthony Towns: Only rookie since 83-84 (and possibly ever) to average 10rpg, nearly 2bpg while shooting over 80% from the line. You sweet bastard, you.
- Kobe Bryant: 288 FGs on 822 FGAs (35%) in 49 games: Every month this one stings just a bit as Kobe’s the only player (since 83-84) who has needed 822 shots to make just 288. He had his best TS month of the season at a paltry 48%, driven by a season-best 32% from three, but even his best this year is well below average. (Note: At this moment on March 1st, Kobe has made as many FGs as Steph has 3s.) Old Kobe is grossly inefficient, but he’s still a human so let’s just move on.
- Ricky Rubio: 149 FGs on 411 FGAs (36%) in 54 games: Rubio’s game couldn’t be much more different from Kobe’s which makes the fact that the 2016 versions of each both shoot like shit a weird kind of coincidence, but it’s still true. If you want to find silver linings in Rubio’s shooting, you need to look at his free throws (shooting career-best 83%) because everything else is bad or sporadic. While we’re grasping for straws, it’s worth mentioning that in 11 February games, Rubio had his best FG%, FT%, and TS% of the season while averaging a season-high points for a month with a 124 ORtg – also a season high. Maybe some of that can be traced to the addition of Zach LaVine to the starting lineup or maybe it’s just part of Rollercoaster Rubio’s peaks and valleys. The last guy to shoot this bad through 54 games was Eddie House in 2003-04.
- Tony Parker: 285 FGs on 553 FGs (51.5%) in 54 games: The only other guard to make 285 or more shots on 553 or less attempts is John Stockton; a player probably as steady as any in history though Tim Duncan and Karl Malone may have bones to pick with that idea. Whatever, Parker’s shooting his eyeballs out this season. He’s extra-selective in his shot selection as evidenced by his taking less than a three/game, but making 47% of them including 57% in February on 14 attempts. I still don’t see him being a significant contributor in a Spurs/Warriors series, but there’s a reason I’m here writing this and not giving snarky answers to sideline reporters in between quarters of NBA games.
- Russell Westbrook: 1458 points and 619 assists in 60 games: Since 83-84, the only other player to go for at least 24-10 was little Michael Adams, but this is all about Russ (sorry, Michael). In addition to the rare 24-10, Russ is leading the league in steals and averaging nearly 8rpg. He’s second in the league in triple doubles (has 9 to Draymo’s 10) and has somehow found a way to be the Russ the pundits always wanted him to be while doing it his own way – and no, I’m not referencing his pre-game fashion eccentricities though that is an implicit part of the package. But two thoughts on Russ: I’ve always considered him a modern version of Barkley in his violently raw athleticism that allows him to impact every part of the game at a high level. And now I’m wondering if, like Barkley with MJ, Russ is doomed to the shadow of Steph. It’s too early for this kind of talk though, the future is a doorway to tomorrow in the shape of a question mark. After you, my friend. I insist.
- James Harden: 614 FTA and 417 assists in 60 games: Speaking of the great unknown, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see Harden pop up twice. Harden’s one of our most skilled players and because of that he’s in select company with LeBron James and Iverson as the only three players since 83-84 to average at least 7apg while shooting 10 FTA/game. These are true attackers of the basket, a rare breed of player that batters defenses with body shots instead of the one-punch KOs of Curry/Pacquiao. Also worth noting, 2015-16 Harden and 2004-05 Iverson both averaged over 4.5 TOV/gm along with their 7apg and 10 FTA/gm.
- Draymo, Russ and Triple Doubles: This is a new addition to the list. Draymo and Russ have combined for 19 triple doubles this season and with a quarter of the season remaining, NBA players have already registered the most triple doubles (47) since 1996-97 when players combined for 50; led by Grant Hill’s 13. For context, the most in a season since 83-84 was 88-89 when players put up 78. Magic had 17, MJ 15, and Fat Lever 9.
March 1, 2016Posted by on
Like millions of basketball fans on Saturday night, I sat on my couch watching Oklahoma City’s lead squirt out of their hands like a slippery fish refusing to comply with a hungry human stomach or sportsman. And on the other end of that wriggling was Stephen Curry just waiting to create an iconic moment in the form of a 38-foot game-winning three that, to my understanding, everyone expected to go in. The supreme in athletics is when everyone knows what will happen and is powerless to stop it and this is what Steph created on Saturday.
In the process, he set the NBA single season record for threes made – even though he’s appeared in just 56 games of an 82-game season. But big deal, because it became clear sometime in late November that he had about as much regard for his own three-point record as I do for olives. He’s pacing to make more threes this season that Magic Johnson did his entire career and in the past week has hit nearly as many threes at the Chicago Bulls entire team. His wake is littered with discarded adjectives and comparisons, but it’s mathematically evident that there is no precedent for his season, which is the natural segue to asking what’s next?
Back in December I explored how Curry was experiencing such an explosion and concluded that a mix of increased volume and accuracy were the primary drivers and this continues to be the case as Curry’s FGAs and 3PAs/game are both at career highs while his FG%, 3p% and 2p% are all significantly above his career-bests. (It’s not that simple in the sense that ball movement, Draymond Green acting as primary playmaker, collectively elite passing, lineup versatility, etc are contributing.)
That’s how we got here and while those factors will continue feeding into what Steph does next, I started thinking this morning that his recent road trip could be indicative of what’s next to come.
For reference, over the seven-game trip he averaged 36-points while shooting 56% from the field and making 48 of 85 threes for a 56.5% clip and seemed to have reached some perpetual zone over the final three games of the trip when he shot 28 of 43 from three (65%) and averaged 46ppg. That’s a 9 of 14 average from three and somehow, in the same way that everyone expected him to sink that 38-footer to kill off OKC on Saturday night, in some way it doesn’t feel unsustainable. This isn’t at all to say that it will happen, but to explore whether it, or something like it, could happen.
When I wrote back in December, I operated under an assumption that the Warriors had achieved some sort of perfect balance between minutes and usage for Curry. I thought that 11 or 12 3-point attempts in 35 or less minutes was ideal. What this road trip has revealed is that maybe there’s room to bump up the three-point attempts so I started looking at two pieces of information:
- Curry performances in high-volume shooting games
- Shooting distance
Using basketball-reference’s handy dandy player game finder, I took a look at all games in regular season history where a player has taken at least 15 threes. It’s happened 129 times and includes everyone from Steph to Jeff Green to Gerald Green to Nick Van Exel. Not surprisingly, Steph appears on the list 16 times – seven more than J.R. Smith who’s second and ten more than George McCloud at third. In 11 of those 16 games, Steph shot over 50% and if we really want to find a reason to cock an eyebrow, he’s never shot over 16 threes in a game. For all the “that’s a bad shot for anyone other than Steph” comments out there, a sober man could counter that he should be taking more of any shot he can get.
Now let’s push the hypothesis a bit more. Of Steph’s 16 games with 15 or more attempts, 11 have occurred this season. This lines up nicely with the increase in volume, but what makes it more impressive is the accuracy. In these 11 games in 2015-16, he’s shooting 48% from deep on 300 attempts which is a full percentage point above his season average which is also his career-best. While it’s fair to assume a player who’s shooting well will shoot more, this 11-game sample shows that Steph still has room to increase volume without potentially sacrificing any of that accuracy. For historical comparison, only one other player who’s taken at least 15 threes in more than one game has a higher percentage and that’s his teammate Klay Thompson who’s shooting 56.4% on three career high-volume 3PA games. Steph’s is 53.2%.
But how do you get more attempts if defenses are playing you smarter? Oklahoma City switched on all screens that involved Steph and did a surprisingly decent job of it. Occasionally it left Steven Adams or Enes Kanter defending Curry, but more often than not, OKC was able to contain Curry from deep. There was a concerted effort to defend the arc and yet he still got off 16 threes and tied the record with 12 makes. (Quick aside, has a single game NBA record ever felt more vulnerable than the 12 threes made in a game record does now?) His quick release and ability to exploit the slightest defensive lapse created windows of daylight that few basketball players in the history of the game could exploit. And finally, just the threat of the deep three, the 28-foot and deeper bomb creates opportunities.
The expanded range is gaudy in the same way his fat 3PM/game is fat. It’s freakish and obvious in the way booming homeruns and knockouts are and has the appearance of being indicative of both an exploration and evolution of his game. An evolution in the sense that, year-over-year, he’s taking and making deeper threes. An exploration in the increased volume by distance. February and January accounted for 11 of his 22 +30-foot attempts. Is he getting bolder?
Less than 4% of Curry’s threes this season have been from 30-feet or deeper. That number is super small, but it’s also more attempts than five of his nearest peers in terms of deep shooting. Thompson, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Kobe Bryant, and J.J. Redick are a combined 3-20 from beyond 30-feet this season while Curry’s hit 11 of his 22 attempts. He’s shooting 50% to his peers’ 15%. It’s unfair and borderline useless to keep making these comparisons, but contextualizing something abnormal remains necessary.
But it wasn’t always this way for Curry. Last year he was 3-16 (19%) beyond 30-feet and that was the best season of his career; prior to that he was an underwhelming 5-53 for his career. That type of inaccuracy is enough to make a coach or your teammates ask you in what the devil’s going on in your thick skull, but nope. In 2016, he’s still bombing with low frequency, but frequently enough to be relatively prolific. It’s one thing to rain area code jumpers in warmups when children are crying like the Beatles are about to perform, but it’s something altogether different when an above average NBA defender is guarding you, thousands of fans are shrieking cacophonously in your ears and the damn game is on the line. Hitting that shot? What is that? In game for Steph, it’s a 50% shot.
So what’s next? Is he pushing the envelope, taking opportunities the defense gives? In a world of vulgar, offensive certainty, not knowing what’s next creates a magnetic sense of anticipation. We knew that game-winner was going in, but really who hits a game-winner like that? The crystallization of our hopes and fears lands us somewhere between numb and elated at the improbable inevitability of it all. I was going for Oklahoma City and Russ and Durant and even Enes Kanter. The last thing I wanted to see was a season-defining from a player in the midst of a historic run and yet here I am sucked into the vortex, levelheaded and whole with all my bearings making sense of that which makes no sense and wondering, with mixed emotions, what in the Land of Chamberlain comes next.
February 9, 2016Posted by on
Almost 25 years ago to the day, a perturbed Karl Malone nursing hurt feelings and a bruised ego stepped onto the Salt Palace court as the Jazz hosted the Milwaukee Bucks. What ensued was something akin to a pissed off Andre the Giant going off script at a Royal Rumble and tossing all comers out of the ring so quick that the pay-per-view ends two hours early and no one is quite certain what just happened. The game itself was a bloodbath and Malone scored a career-high 61 points on 21-26 shooting while snatching 18 rebounds in just 33 minutes of game play.
The only reason I found this game was thanks to modern-day efficiency king Stephen Curry’s precision in Washington D.C. less than a week ago when he scored 51 in 36 minutes in a road victory over the Wizards while shooting 19-28 from the field and 11-16 from deep. It was peak Curry and peak Warriors in that the reigning MVP needed just 36 minutes to fill it up. In the nationally televised game, he opened the bidding with a 25-point first quarter on 7-8 from three and playing all 12 minutes. In what (as of this writing) Sacramento Kings Coach George Karl refers to as a “California cool” style, Golden State relaxed, turned the ball 15 times through the following three quarters and was outscored over that same period. But the game was close enough that Curry put up his second most shot attempts of the season, tied his most three-point attempts, and exceeded his average minutes/game.
Wizards point guard John Wall described the performance:
It’s like Kobe (Bryant) when he had 81. He couldn’t miss. You keep defending the best way you can. We challenged some shots. He didn’t have too many open looks. He just made them.
Scoring 51 in 36 or less has been accomplished just 12 times since the 1983-84 season with Curry now owning the two most recent occasions. The only other player to appear on the list more than once is Kobe Bryant at four times. What’s unique and I guess predictable is that in all 12 games, the team with the +51-point scorer won. The big scorers are hyper efficient from the field (except Tracy McGrady in 2003) and get to the at least 10 times (except Curry last week who made it to the line just three times).
For me, the most memorable on this list was Kobe’s 62 points on Dallas during his Chamberlain-esque scoring binge of 2005-06 when he had single handedly outscored Dallas through three quarters (62-61). (As a side note, ESPN’s Baxter Holmes reported then-Dallas Assistant Coach Del Harris was the primary motivator for Kobe’s 62-point outburst as Harris had been Kobe’s coach as a rookie and he still held a desire for revenge for Harris “driving him crazy” as a rookie. The unlucky coincidence (for Harris at least) is that Harris was present as the Bucks head coach the night Malone scored his 61. To my knowledge, Del Harris was in no way affiliated with the Wizards during Curry’s performance.)
The anatomy of 51 in 36 is one thing whereas motivation is something altogether different and in some cases less discernible.
After his single-handed destruction of Washington, Curry described what we most frequently refer to as the zone. There was no other apparent motivation, no driving force, just “some of the shots that you’re like ‘Oh that’s off,’ they end up going in. It’s a fun feeling, and you want to ride that until you can’t anymore.”
But for other players, the motivations are clearer for various reasons:
- Kobe, by contrast, has often appeared to tap into anger or feelings of being slighted, as he did during his 62-point game where, in addition to retroactively pointing to Harris as a source of motivation, at the time of the 62 in three quarters, it was a recent loss that fueled him: “I was very angry, I felt like I wanted to come out and send a message, that we’re going to dominate at home. We’re going to hit you, we’re going to bring it to you. I wanted to send that message.”
- For Jermaine O’Neal, his huge game coincided with an arbitrator overturning the league’s decision to suspend him 25 games after the Malice at the Palace brouhaha – the arbitrator agreed on 15 games.
- Two days prior to McGrady scoring 52 on the Bulls in 33 minutes, Orlando traded teammate and friend Mike Miller and T-Mac responded with his career-best at that point. Then Orlando Sentinel writer Jerry Brewer described McGrady’s shock at the trade as “downright biblical.”
- The second such game of Kobe’s career, when he scored 51 in 31, was at least in part driven by taking a shot to the jaw from Denver defender Donnell Harvey early in the game.
- Kobe’s first-such game was again fueled by anger and emotion when he lit up the Grizzlies for 56 in 34 minutes in 2002: “It was a combination of emotions. I was upset because we lost in Chicago, and two in a row. I was upset that Shaq was suspended.”
- A 22-year-old Shaquille O’Neal went for 53 and 18 in 36 minutes back in 1994 as he (and his Magic teammates) went all in trying to get him the scoring title which would ultimately land with David Robinson who scored 71 points in a season finale. Shaq, in his most Shaqness, was also partly inspired by visit from Michael Jackson.
(Note: For a thorough reading on athletes and vengeance, Bill Simmons’ Vengeance Scale from ~2004 (?) still holds up pretty well with an exceptionally robust rating scale.)
But no one on this list can reach the grating disrespect the Mailman felt back in 1990 after the results of the All-Star Game fan vote (hat-tip to Danny Hazan for putting me onto this storyline). It was January 26th, 1990 when Malone, the defending ASG MVP, found out the fans had selected the Lakers’ A.C. Green to start the game. Green edged him out by all of 1,226 votes – less than 1% of the total votes Malone received. At the time, the Mailman was an MVP candidate putting up 30.5ppg on 58% with nearly 11 rebounds and three assists/game. His lividity was so great that Kurt Kragthorpe of The Deseret News wrote: “Before the game, Karl Malone called the NBA office to complain about the voting results and told teammates he would boycott the All-Star Game.”
Teammate John Stockton and the aforementioned fan-selected starter Green were less confounded, both offering more contextual responses. Stockton said,
I don’t know that being selected this way (by fan vote) is any better than being selected the other way (by coaches). It’s tough to be thrilled about a selection process when an absolute shoo-in doesn’t make it. That amazes me.
I’m surprised to be on the team. I never knew my position in the balloting, and it’s really out of the players’ control who the fans vote for. Neither one of us did any campaigning. On paper, you’d think (Malone) would be on the team. I mean, he does it night in, night out. That’s what you have to do to be an All-Star.
But on a first glance that didn’t matter to Malone. And so the following day on the 27th of January, he came out with bad intentions, powered forth by the conviction that he had been wronged in the most egregious fashion. He scorched and burned the Bucks big men in the paint and around the rim. All of his points have been wrapped nicely into a single 12-minute Youtube post (below) and a couple things are powerfully evident: of his 21 made field goals, just two came outside the paint and the topic of the All-Star snubbery was hot all night evidenced by the condensed clips where the announcers mention it three separate times including references to “that message was sent airmail, special delivery!”
The way this drama unfolded is fascinating in the sense that Malone was enraged by the fan vote which is something we’ve come to accept 25 years later as a completely uninformed popularity contest. Stockton and Green seemed to grasp that from different perspectives and maybe it’s all the Yao voting or some of the oddities we’ve seen over the years have reinforced the notion that it’s all about popularity, but clearly players in 1990 understood that. And on some level Malone did too, which I’ll explore, but the announcers repeatedly stating that he was “sending a message to voters” is revealing of the most MJ manner of allowing a slight (however significant) to become an all-consuming obsession and that obsession isn’t just accepted by the community, it becomes a rallying point.
Malone’s approach to this game – constant post-ups on the right block, relentlessness on the offensive glass (he had nine offensive boards), and tearing up the court like a demonic man-tank on amphetamines – are indicative of a sustained fixation. All that anger not just harnessed by Malone, but reinforced by who? Reinforced by the local media, teammates, coaches? In The Deseret News the day after the 61-point game, there was a paragraph and anecdote from Stockton that provides some of the insight into the kind of mind that propelled Malone forward:
So who said Malone was overrated this time? In Charlotte last month, teammate John Stockton planted a fake story that the Hornets’ Armon Gilliam had downgraded Malone in a TV interview and the Mailman went out and scored 52. Stockton claimed innocence Saturday, smiling and saying, “Who knows what can lurk in his mind?”
Reviewing the story from the Gilliam game in December of 1989, it sounds like Stockton definitely planted the seed that got Malone going and speaks to the power of security and insecurity, respect and disrespect, succeeding and failure, and fiction versus reality in addition to Stockton’s ability to know which buttons to push and how hard to push them. For the Mailman, just the suggestion that Armon Gilliam or some fans misunderstood his proper place as one of, if not the preeminent power forward in the NBA simultaneously sent him off the rails and pushed him to new heights.
On the one hand, being overlooked by the fan vote feels insignificant. Malone was so obviously at the peak of the game that it seems like it shouldn’t have mattered. The other angle to take is that having achieved so much already (ASG MVP, All-NBA first team, playoffs, top power forward status) and being accepted by his peers, the only audience left to convert was the fans. Where Jordan had his Nike contract and Magic his smile and Larry the faithful of the Boston Garden, Malone was still – at least based on the voting – an unknown. What more did he need to do? What more could he do? Losing out to a clearly lesser player in Green had to be discouragingly Sisyphean and unfair. It had to hurt.
Within this intrusive exploration into the mind of Karl Malone is a glimpse into how that mind works which is what I find so intriguing. If we look at the drama of early 1990 linearly, there’s a nice a smooth narrative arc: the release of the ASG voting which shakes Malone and results in him going as far as reportedly calling the league office. Then there’s the response, the attempt to “send a message to the voters” as if they were a singular mind, as if the vote was indicative of his standing relative to Green’s even though Malone at his most rational had to know how little it implied. The 61 points was intentionally symbolic, but most likely sent to an audience the majority of whom weren’t even listening and the people who were listening already knew Malone’s standing. Even before the eruption, his tone was somewhat more revealing:
- “The first couple of days, it hurts, but after a while you have to take a little time and think about things.”
- From the AP via Seattle Times: `When you get put into the situation that I’m in, it’s hard. You get hurt. Everyone has a sense of pride, but I’ve had time to think about it and I think I will go if I’m asked.’
They’re both variations of the same quote and the same theme of having his pride and feelings hurt. Most of us can relate to being stung – whether it’s being disrespected, not being appreciated, being rejected – and responding first with anger expressed through lashing out – or calling the NBA’s front office and saying we’re not going to participate in the ASG. But what we do next is where people’s individual processes vary. Sometimes when I’m angry, I have an immediate outlet and it’s rarely competitive sports. Maybe I dive into work or writing or I’m unfairly being a jackass to my wife. But whether I channel that anger with or without intention, it doesn’t result in anything resembling 61-point games. Other times I’m able to easily identify that what I’m feeling isn’t even anger, but hurt or sadness and I can skip the anger-manifested-as-fill-in-the-blank step and resolve the damn thing in the immediate.
Where it would seem our species can walk fine lines is in how much these real or imagined slights grow and fester. For the pro basketball community, Michael Jordan is the standard bearer who leveraged slights and insults as well as any basketball player in history. For anyone who saw Jordan’s Hall of Fame speech, there was a sad bitterness at how MJ articulated his motivations dating back his high school years (sorry Leroy Smith) and carrying through his entire career. I don’t have any desire or intent to judge MJ’s vindictiveness or the benefits or risks of using that mentality as a value principle for succeeding in life other than to observe that it looks fucking exhausting.
What followed Malone’s seeming acceptance and resolution was no less interesting. On January 31st he was chosen as a reserve for the ASG, but awkwardly stated: “Maybe somebody would say, ‘He doesn’t really want to go.’ After all the attention, I don’t think it would have been a big disappointment not to be selected by the coaches.”
He still wasn’t comfortable with having missed out on the fan vote (again, by a ridiculously narrow margin) and it’s not crazy to at least ask if that frustration factored into his comments on February 6th when he said he would retire in five years – after the 1994-95 season when he’d still be 31.
I won’t go deep on the retirement comment other than to say the timing raises an eyebrow if nothing else. The last piece of this particular Malone-driven drama is what actually ended up happening at the All-Star Game in Miami. Malone didn’t end up playing and cited an injury as the reason. This would be one of two games Malone missed between 1989 and 1997 including regular season, playoffs and ASGs. I have no issue with players sitting out the mid-season games, but sitting this game coupled with the retirement talk are at least anecdotal evidence that this enormous chip that helped him achieve so much (like an insane 61-point game) had the power to impede progress.
These two weeks in the winter of 1990 serve as a dramatic microcosm of Malone’s psyche. Always well-respected, but long labeled a choker, Malone was truly a great player, but a great player who on occasion struggled with the mental aspects of the game. In this way, he’s infinitely relatable. Who among us hasn’t struggled with some mental hurdle that seems pre-loaded into our psyches? And who hasn’t accomplished some thing by some inborn flame which is as old as our individual history? Malone in greatness and bitterness is still just a man – who happens to be 6’9”, 270lbs capable of scoring 61 points and grabbing 18 rebounds in 33 minutes of a pro basketball game.
February 2, 2016Posted by on
We’re in the thick of things now. Iowa caucuses are dominating the Twitter and cable periphery. Hell, the caucuses and nauseating Presidential politics are dominating everything, but still the NBA game goes on like the little men and women at the center of the Earth pushing the giant gears that keep this frightening globe spinning. And as long as the NBA goes on, we’ll have stats and contexts and histories to thumb through – which is exactly what we prefer to do here. So damn the elections, let’s check in with the NBA, 2016 style:
[NOTE: All stat comparisons use www.basketball-reference.com’s Player Index Finder which cross-references data going back to the 1983-84 season. Anything that occurred pre-83-84 is not included.}
- Andre Drummond: 720 rebounds in 48 games. When we last checked in with Drummond, he was averaging over 16rpg. Through January and 48 games, the Middleman in Motor City has dropped to 15rpg, but he’s still semi-prolific. We haven’t seen a player board like this since Kevin Love in 2010-11 and Drummond is just the fourth player in this +30-year data set. His new friends include Love, Dennis Rodman (seven times!), and Kevin Willis.
- Hassan Whiteside: 158 blocks in 41 games. After averaging over 4 blocks/game for the first 31 games of the season, Whiteside’s subsequent 10 games have dropped to just a shade over 3/game. It’s nothing to sneeze at and I’m unfamiliar with analysis including sneezes so let’s get away from that. Whiteside’s been dinged up with injuries and appears to get a bit sensitive on Instagram when he’s criticized – which is often. Dramas aside, no one’s blocked shots as frequently as Whiteside since Marcus Camby back in 2007-08.
- James Harden: 221 turnovers in 50 games. The Rockets have been a hot mess this year and some chunk of the responsibility for their suffering falls on the bearded shoulders of Harden. His stats have been gaudy as he’s averaging ~28ppg, 6rpg, and 7apg, but the most consistent element to his play has been turnovers. So many turnovers. If I told you his TOs/game had decreased since early January, maybe you’d nod in approval. But if I told you his average dropped from 4.47/game to 4.42, maybe you’d shake your head in disgust. The last player to mishandle this much through this many games was that ode to anti-efficiency measures, Allen Iverson back in 1996-97. At least that AI was a rookie with mistakes to make and lessons to learn. Harden is … not a rookie. He shouldn’t be making this many mistakes.
- Steph Curry: 221 3s made in 46 games. This stat is a video game. Side note, back when I was in college I had NBA 2k-something on Dreamcast. I added classic players (Wilt, Jordan, Russell, Dominique, etc) to all the rosters, then did a draft. I was in college and had a ton of time on my hands, don’t ask. I’d play games with every team and was a bit of a stickler for having at least somewhat realistic stats. My roommates would sometimes play my season when I wasn’t there – I didn’t care much because I was playing games with every But one day I come back and am looking at the records and see my roommate went nuclear with Jerry West and scored 122 points in a single game. The next most threes any player has made through 46 games is also Steph with 154 two seasons ago. His 221 threes so far this season would’ve led the league as recently as 2010-11. Steph is the Jerry West of my Dreamcast 2k. He is Barry Bonds. He is Tom Brady. He is Tiger Woods.
- Draymond Green: 445 rebounds and 343 assists in 47 games. These numbers translate into 9.5rpg and 7.3apg which are both improvements on his thru-December averages from last post. Using basketball-references’s game finder to adjust for number of games played, no player since 83-84 has reached these numbers. But if we open the filter to look at entire seasons, Green gets company in the forms of Larry Bird (89-90), Magic Johnson (81-82), Wilt (twice), and Oscar (four times). We know Draymo’s elevated himself to that next, but sweet mother of triple doubles that’s a historic wrecking crew.
- Kristaps Porzingis: 54 3s and 93 blocks in 49 games. It seemed in late December or early January like maybe the Zinger had hit the wall, but he bounced back a 7’3” piece of laffy taffy in January when he played his most minutes, scored his most points, and had his highest true shooting percentage month of any month in his young career. Quite possibly the most popular Latvian man in America, the Zinger’s 54 3s and 93 blocks in 49 games make him one of just five players since 83-84 to put up these stats. The most recent was Serge Ibaka who accomplished the feat as a six-year vet. Porzingis isn’t even 21 yet.
- Paul George: 131 3s and 335 rebounds in 47 games. George makes just the third player since 83-84 to average over 2.3 3s/game and over 7rpg and the first since current New Orleans Hornet and trade rumor hot topic Ryan Anderson pulled it off in 2011-12. The other is the king of the shimmy, Antoine Walker with Boston back in 01-02. This has the feel of a replicable line for George and could we see him become the honorary chairman of the 2.5/7 club sometime?
- Kawhi Leonard: 48% from three, 88% from FT, 50% from FG in 45 games. As long as we add a filter for minutes played, this is a list of elite players known primarily for their marksmanship. Kyle Korver accomplished it last year and before that it was Steve Nash in 07-08. Then there’s Chris Mullin and Kiki Vandeweghe along with Dana Barros and Jason Kapono. As I mentioned last month, Leonard’s game in no way resembles this company. That’s part of his mystique, his charm, his Spurish magnetism. And a gentle hat tip to David Thorpe for this, but Leonard’s percentages over two years in college were 45% from FG, 25% from three, and 74% from the line.
- Karl-Anthony Towns: 485 rebounds and 88 blocks in 49 games. Towns turned 20 two and a half months ago. The last rookie to put up a similar 10 rebounds and 2 blocks/game was a 21-year-old Spur named Tim Duncan. Towns isn’t Duncan, but comparing their rookie per/36 numbers looks uncomfortably similar and Towns is about 20 months younger than Duncan was during his rookie season. Towns is oh so good and I’m happy to admit I had no idea he’d be this good.
- Kobe Bryant: 637 field goal attempts and 222 field goals in 40 games. Since 83-84, Kobe’s the only person to make so few shots while attempting so many. It’s shitty and not always fun to watch, but at least we’ve all (Kobe included) settled into an acceptance of what this year is and will be.
- Ricky Rubio: 336 FGAs and 118 FGs in 43 games. Kind of like Kobe, there’s a sense of acceptance with Rubio. The guy can’t shoot. He’s in his fifth year and you have to scoot around his percentages to find signs of improvement: His TS is matching his career-high (49%), but his FG% (35%) is at a career-low. His FT% is a career-high (82%) while his eFG% (39%) is below his career average. The last player to shoot this poorly on as many shots was Sebastian Telfair back in 08-09. Rubio’s no Telfair, but they share an affinity for crappy shooting.
- Tony Parker: 430 FGAs and 225 FGs in 43 games. It’s kind of amazing that at 33 and in his 15th season, Parker is having one of the most efficient shooting seasons of his career, but that’s what’s happening. Seeing Kawhi on this list and knowing how well Duncan has aged, it’s easy to want to praise the Spurs system and they deserve it, but these players have to be working as hard as anyone in the game to do what they do when they do – IE, putting up ultra-efficient seasons well after their athletic primes have been reached. Dwight Howard and Marcin Gortat were able to shoot as efficiently in the same amount of games last season, but it’s not as impressive a feat for the big man to do it. The only other guards to make as many shots while attempting so few are John Stockton and Maurice Cheeks.
- Russell Westbrook: 1181 points and 485 assists in 49 games. Relatively speaking, Westbrook had a down January. His points, minutes, steals and shooting stats were all down from previous months, but he compensated by bumping emphasizing his rebounding and assists. At this point, we all know Westbrook is a heatsinking missile with bad intentions and with the addition of a new Euro-step, he’s even more Westbrookian. It’s popping in the stats too as he’s joined by little Michael Adams as the only players since 83-84 averaging roughly 24 and 10 through 49 games. If Westbrook can make it to the end of the season with these benchmarks, he’ll join Adams, Tiny Archibald (72-73) and Oscar Robertson (five times) as the only players to do so.
- James Harden: 507 FTA and 348 assists in 50 games: Sure, Harden’s sloppy with the turnovers, but with all those possessions a lot of good things happen. He’s getting to the line more than 10 times/game while distributing just a hair under 7 assists/game. He’s the first player with these numbers this deep into the season since LeBron back in 07-08.
The All-Star game and trade deadline are coming soon so February’s a light month for the best basketball league in the world, but the games keep coming. It’s the stretch before the last stretch, a time when people can and do fall off as the playoff picture crystallizes, soft tissues strain and tear and NBA Cinderellas turn into pumpkins late at night – is that you Pumpkin Cousins? The onslaughts will continue so let’s rendezvous here in two fortnights with finger sandwiches and refreshments.
January 29, 2016Posted by on
The media and Dwight Howard have always positioned the Houston big man as some kind of heir to Shaquille O’Neal in the same way it was en vogue for years to saddle two-guards with the dreaded “Next MJ” tag. It was wrong with Dwight in the same way it was wrong with Vince Carter and MJ. The closest thing we have to Shaq is in Sacramento in big barrel chested DeMarcus Cousins. And for the sake of perpetuity, we must not forget what Cousins did over a pair of games in late January 2016.
It was a Saturday night, January 23rd to be exact. The Kings were hosting the run and gun (?) Indiana Pacers of Paul George fame. Boogie, as the big man is known, had already been enjoying a pleasant new month of the new year, posting and toasting all comers to the tune of 31ppg. The Pacers were without defensive stalwart, starting center and possible Francophile Ian Mahinmi. Journeyman Jordan Hill, rotation player Lavoy Allen, and young upstart Myles Turner (fresh off a 31-point game against Golden State) manned the ramparts in his absence. And like any Jaws in any sea, Boogie smelled blood in that water.
Cousins is listed at 6’11”, 270lbs, but I swear to shit this man weighs more than 270lbs. His upper body defies NBA body types. It’s broad with massive shoulders, filled out in the way someone who chops down trees and carries stumps around all day would be with big, tattoo-covered arms. But where he deviates is in his trunk. Many NBA players have the classic v-shape with broad shoulders and narrow waists, but Cousins doesn’t thin out like Dwight. He’s thick all the way through and uses his body in the most Shaq-like of ways to create space and room to breathe to get up little jump hooks and lay-ins.
But life as a Boogie Cousins isn’t about playing the traditional back-to-the basket game. Against the Pacers, Cousins more frequently caught the ball on the wing, which is anti-Shaq/Dwight/tradition. In 2015-16, he has three-point range, which is like Paul Bunyan having the domestic sensibilities of Martha Stewart. Cousins catches on the wing, throws in a couple fakes and the defenders – be it Hill, Allen, or Turner – have to respect it. While taller players like Dirk Nowitzki and Kristaps Porzingis are rewriting concepts about what 7-footers can and can’t do, traditional centers shooting threes are still an evolving species. Defending those players is no easy task for semi-mobile 7-footers and so Cousins making over a three/game has opened up dribble driving attacks that maybe weren’t there earlier in his career. (Prior to this season, Cousins’ had taken 69 threes in his career. This year, in 37 games he’s taken 129 and made four times as many threes than in his entire career.) These defenders have to offer a cushion in defense, but Boogie’s handle is good enough to attack which he loves to do. Throughout the game against Indiana, Cousins repeatedly put the ball on the floor and penetrated. He was often off-balance, had his shots blocked from ending up in terrible position under the hoop, but he was still effective. He drew fouls and made at least six of his 17 field goals on these dribble drives.
Cousins has a sure-footedness you may expect in a giant amateur ballerina. He’s not the most graceful, but in addition to attacking defenders off the dribble, he’ll occasionally hit them with spin moves that leave defenders grasping at air where Cousins used to be. Against the Pacers, on three separate possessions, he found different ways to leverage the spin into buckets. In the second quarter, he caught it in the post, set up Lavoy Allen to overplay to the middle of the lane, took a couple dribbles and with his left shoulder pushed the defender deeper out of position, and once space had been established, pulled a quick spin for a dunk. This spin reminded me of Shaq in all the glory of his power and quickness.
Later the spin accompanied one of his many dribble drives and resulted in a lefty layup make. And finally, feeling Allen overplaying on a post-up, he spun baseline for an unmolested catch and score.
The final tally was a career-high 48 points on 29 shots, a single three, 13-20 from the line a team-best +18, and the Kings fifth straight win.
Two nights later on the Monday when most everyone in the NBA solar system was focusing their undivided attentions on the Spurs at Warriors main event, Sacramento decided to host the Charlotte Hornets. Like the Pacers, these Hornets were shorter than normal and short-handed. Perennial double double Al Jefferson was out with knee surgery and his backup Cody Zeller sat with a shoulder injury. Crying MJ’s Hornets went to battle with a front court that included native Pacific Northwesterners Spencer Hawes and Marvin Williams bolstered by Frank Kaminsky and Tyler Hansbrough off the bench. As Shaq so delightfully enjoys exclaiming: Barbeque Chicken!
And while Warriors-Spurs descended into the East Bay Evisceration, the undermanned Hornets and Kings of Cousins ratcheted up intensities with competitive basketballing. With a banged up crew, the Hornets decided to front Cousins if Williams or Hansbrough guarded him with Hawes or another defender helping on the backside. If Hawes was on Cousins, he’d play behind him. This strategy and the overwhelming physical advantage the Kings had allowed for a different exploitation than what Cousins showed against the Mahinmi-less Pacers. With a weakened frontline, the Hornets were like Goldilocks and Cousins was all three of the bears happy to maul his all-too-human opponents. No less than six times the Hornets ended up fronting Cousins and the Kings, particularly with Rondo recognizing the opportunity, took advantage. Even if Hawes was able to help over, Cousins was too big, too quick, too skilled scored easily.
This time it’s not even Hawes able to help out, but 6’4” Troy Daniels who’s maybe slightly more effective than I would be at pestering Cousins (course I’m 6’3″ 250 and run a 4.5 forty):
But later we see Hawes as the help man and even though he anticipates the post entry, he’s powerless and gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar, and-1 DeMarcus:
As the game unfolded, it had the feeling of some kind of lopsided battle royal playing out on the basketball court. Cousins and his teammates continued to pound the ball inside, almost growing with greed. A mix of jump hooks, dunks, layups and free throws were there for the picking. But all that post work is exhausting for a man carrying what Cousins has. The catches and fouls, scoring with 240lb-men draped over your shoulders can wear on the biggest ox. As the game shifted into overtime, it felt like a battle of attrition and I wondered who would collapse first: Big Cuz or the entire Hornets front line? Williams fouled after Cousins dunked on him on a lob, then it was Hawes and finally Hansbrough went to the bench with his sixth which left the relatively slight rookie Kaminsky to defend the most dominant post scorer in the league. A bully mentality is a great asset to any big man, but that wasn’t enough for Cousins against Frank the (tiny) Tank. He had the audacity to mix in a hesitation dribble on a drive the likes of which I can only assume Kaminsky never saw in the Big 10.
But mercy was on the side of Kaminsky and the Hornets. In the second OT when the world of basketball was firmly united in cheering Cousins towards his 60th point and the team’s sixth straight win, a referee named Zach Zarba bailed out Kaminsky by whistling Cousins for his sixth. In the league’s official review of all calls that occur in the final two minutes or OT, they deemed Zarba had made the correct call, but as any of us who watched the game can attest, it was not the correct call in the sense that Cousins was essentially penalized for being bigger and stronger than his opponent. And what a way to wrap up a night in which a man has appeared to be truly Shaqtastic – by being penalized in a way in which Shaq was oh so familiar.
Final tally was a new career-high 56 points on 30 shots, a single three, 13-16 from the line, a team-best +13, and a Kings loss.
The following night a bedraggled Kings team headed north to take on the Blazers in Portland. They were soundly thrashed, losing every quarter of the game. Our hero Boogie fell back to earth with a thud scoring 17 points while shooting 4-21 from the field. But who reserves space in their memory banks for the second games of back-to-backs? Who has time for such letdowns when we’re given 104 points over a two-game span? Cousins might not be Shaq, but in an evolving NBA where skilled back-to-the-basket big men appear to be a slowly dying breed, Cousins is without peer when it comes to dominant big man. While he may make head scratch-inducing decisions and have the occasional poor judgment on the court, enjoy him while we can and let’s not forget the time he scored 104 points in back-to-back games.
Final two-night tally: 104 points on 38-59 shooting (64%), 2-5 from three, 26-36 from the line (72%), 25 rebounds, 10 fouls, 12 turnovers, 84 minutes, 1-1 record